Negative Economic Sentiment Index Based on Finnish News Titles
Loading...
Access rights
openAccess
publishedVersion
URL
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
A1 Alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessä
This publication is imported from Aalto University research portal.
View publication in the Research portal (opens in new window)
View/Open full text file from the Research portal (opens in new window)
View publication in the Research portal (opens in new window)
View/Open full text file from the Research portal (opens in new window)
Authors
Date
2023-10-06
Major/Subject
Mcode
Degree programme
Language
en
Pages
15
Series
Journal of the Finnish Economic Association, Volume 4, issue 1, pp. 49-63
Abstract
We construct an index for measuring negative economic sentiment in Finland by using news titles collected from the Finnish broadcasting company Yle's archive. Our approach uses supervised machine learning text classification for detecting news titles featuring negative economic sentiment, and the monthly aggregated proportional frequencies of those titles are then used for defining the index. We find a negative correlation between our index and the consumer confidence index by Statistics Finland, and more remarkably, our index seems to lead the consumer confidence index, somewhat, by one month. We also show that our index correlates positively with Finnish stock market volatility. In addition, based on a simple VAR model, we examine how certain macro variables respond to changes in economic sentiment and show that our index could prove helpful in assessing the current and near-future state of the Finnish economy.Description
Keywords
economic sentiment, natural language processing, machine learning, naive Bayes classifier, economic forecasting
Other note
Citation
Avela, A & Lehmus, M 2023, ' Negative Economic Sentiment Index Based on Finnish News Titles ', Journal of the Finnish Economic Association, vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 49-63 . https://doi.org/10.33358/jfea.127453