On risk management of shipping system in ice-covered waters : Review, analysis and toolbox based on an eight-year polar project
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A2 Katsausartikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessä
Ocean Engineering, Volume 266
AbstractWith the climate change, polar sea ice is diminishing. This, on one hand, enables the possibility for e.g., Arctic shipping and relevant resource exploitation activities, but on the other hand brings additional risks induced by these activities. Increasing research focuses have been observed on the relevant topics in the complex and harsh polar environment and its fragile ecosystem. However, from risk management perspective, there is still a lack of holistic analysis and understanding towards safe shipping in the ice-covered waters and its available models applicable for managing risks in the system. Therefore, this paper aims to establish a framework and analysis for better understanding of this gap. The paper targets a comprehensive and long-term project specifically focusing on holistic safe shipping in ice-covered waters as the analysis basis. It firstly creates a holistic framework for the shipping system in ice-covered waters and then implements review and analysis of project publications on their overall features. Quantitative prediction models are selected for a structured applicability analysis. Furthermore, an extensive review outside the project following the elements established for the holistic shipping system is conducted so that this paper provides an overview of models for the shipping system in ice-covered waters, addressing the status of the current toolbox. Moreover, it helps to identify the next scientific steps on risk management of shipping in ice-covered waters.
Funding Information: In order to have a holistic perspective and elements for the shipping system, the paper targets a comprehensive and long-term project specifically focusing on holistic safe polar shipping as the analysis basis. The long-term project has coherent focus and involves fundamental elements and holistic views towards safe polar shipping, thus provides a good basis for analysis. The polar project has two stages namely CEARCTIC (Centre of Excellence for Arctic Shipping and Operations) and CEPOLAR (Centre of Excellence for Scenario-based Risk Management in Polar Waters) starting from 2013 to 2022 focusing on different aspects regarding safe shipping in ice-covered waters. It is funded by Lloyd's Register Foundation and combines the research strengths from five universities: Aalto University, Hamburg University of Technology, Memorial University of Newfoundland, Norwegian University of Science and Technology and University of Helsinki. Extensive research work has been carried out in the framework of risk management towards safe shipping and the outcomes are mainly published in scientific journal and conference papers, where various subjects, research directions and methods have been focused and applied.Table 13 shows the toolbox under ecosystem impact topic. The model P3 adopts index-based approach to assess the vulnerability of Arctic biota. The resource and skill level needed are considered as medium and low respectively. The uncertainty is discussed to some extent; therefore, it is considered as a medium level SoE, which gives a M applicability level. The potential limitation is that the model still uses a number of judgements and uniform distribution due to lack of relevant data. In addition, the model does not include the spatial features for both oil spill and Arctic biota, which limits the practical utilization. The model P13 aims to estimate the probability of marine fish cell damages to oil spill. The required resource and skill level are low, and the model considers validation through a general comparison. Therefore, validation level is considered as Medium, and the final applicability level is rated as M as well. The limitation of the model is that the CPT states are limited and the modelling of structure and CPTs lack SoE supports. This project has received funding from the Lloyd's Register Foundation, a charitable foundation, helping to protect life and property by supporting engineering-related education, public engagement and the application of research www.lrfoundation.org.uk. Funding Information: This project has received funding from the Lloyd's Register Foundation , a charitable foundation, helping to protect life and property by supporting engineering-related education, public engagement and the application of research www.lrfoundation.org.uk . Publisher Copyright: © 2022 The Authors
Applicability, Ice-covered waters, Review and analysis, Risk management, Shipping system, Toolbox
Lu , L , Kujala , P & Kuikka , S 2022 , ' On risk management of shipping system in ice-covered waters : Review, analysis and toolbox based on an eight-year polar project ' , Ocean Engineering , vol. 266 , 113078 . https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2022.113078