Reserves and trade jointly determine exposure to food supply shocks

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dc.contributorAalto-yliopistofi
dc.contributorAalto Universityen
dc.contributor.authorMarchand, Philippeen_US
dc.contributor.authorCarr, Joel A.en_US
dc.contributor.authorDell'Angelo, Jampelen_US
dc.contributor.authorFader, Marianelaen_US
dc.contributor.authorGephart, Jessica A.en_US
dc.contributor.authorKummu, Mattien_US
dc.contributor.authorMagliocca, Nicholas R.en_US
dc.contributor.authorPorkka, Miinaen_US
dc.contributor.authorPuma, Michael J.en_US
dc.contributor.authorRatajczak, Zaken_US
dc.contributor.authorRulli, Maria Cristinaen_US
dc.contributor.authorSeekell, David A.en_US
dc.contributor.authorSuweis, Samiren_US
dc.contributor.authorTavoni, Alessandroen_US
dc.contributor.authorD'Odorico, Paoloen_US
dc.contributor.departmentDepartment of Built Environmenten
dc.contributor.groupauthorWater and Environmental Eng.en
dc.date.accessioned2016-12-21T07:52:25Z
dc.date.issued2016-09en_US
dc.description.abstractWhile a growing proportion of global food consumption is obtained through international trade, there is an ongoing debate on whether this increased reliance on trade benefits or hinders food security, and specifically, the ability of global food systems to absorb shocks due to local or regional losses of production. This paper introduces a model that simulates the short-term response to a food supply shock originating in a single country, which is partly absorbed through decreases in domestic reserves and consumption, and partly transmitted through the adjustment of trade flows. By applying the model to publicly-available data for the cereals commodity group over a 17 year period, we find that differential outcomes of supply shocks simulated through this time period are driven not only by the intensification of trade, but as importantly by changes in the distribution of reserves. Our analysis also identifies countries where trade dependency may accentuate the risk of food shortages from foreign production shocks; such risk could be reduced by increasing domestic reserves or importing food from a diversity of suppliers that possess their own reserves. This simulation-based model provides a framework to study the short-term, nonlinear and out-of-equilibrium response of trade networks to supply shocks, and could be applied to specific scenarios of environmental or economic perturbations.en
dc.description.versionPeer revieweden
dc.format.extent11
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen_US
dc.identifier.citationMarchand, P, Carr, J A, Dell'Angelo, J, Fader, M, Gephart, J A, Kummu, M, Magliocca, N R, Porkka, M, Puma, M J, Ratajczak, Z, Rulli, M C, Seekell, D A, Suweis, S, Tavoni, A & D'Odorico, P 2016, ' Reserves and trade jointly determine exposure to food supply shocks ', Environmental Research Letters, vol. 11, no. 9, 095009 . https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/095009en
dc.identifier.doi10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/095009en_US
dc.identifier.issn1748-9326
dc.identifier.otherPURE UUID: d64c234e-6530-4d54-a9f5-e3de9dbd94ecen_US
dc.identifier.otherPURE ITEMURL: https://research.aalto.fi/en/publications/d64c234e-6530-4d54-a9f5-e3de9dbd94ecen_US
dc.identifier.otherPURE FILEURL: https://research.aalto.fi/files/9490404/pdf.pdfen_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://aaltodoc.aalto.fi/handle/123456789/23861
dc.identifier.urnURN:NBN:fi:aalto-201612216038
dc.language.isoenen
dc.relation.ispartofseriesENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERSen
dc.relation.ispartofseriesVolume 11, issue 9en
dc.rightsopenAccessen
dc.subject.keywordfood systemsen_US
dc.subject.keywordresilienceen_US
dc.subject.keywordfood crisesen_US
dc.subject.keywordLAND-USEen_US
dc.subject.keywordINTERNATIONAL-TRADEen_US
dc.subject.keywordAGRICULTURAL TRADEen_US
dc.subject.keywordGLOBALIZATIONen_US
dc.subject.keywordDISPLACEMENTen_US
dc.subject.keywordSECURITYen_US
dc.subject.keywordNATIONSen_US
dc.subject.keywordWATERen_US
dc.titleReserves and trade jointly determine exposure to food supply shocksen
dc.typeA1 Alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessäfi
dc.type.versionpublishedVersion
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