Predictive power of the fantasy premier league metrics: Influence-Creativity-Threat index (ICT) and Fixture Difficulty Rating (FDR)

Abstract

This thesis discusses the ability to predict player performance in the context of the Fantasy premier league.

The thesis will focus on analyzing the predictive power of the Influence-creativity-threat index (ICT) and the fixture difficulty rating (FDR) in explaining the points scored by a player in the fantasy premier league (FPL).

The objective of the thesis is to evaluate how significantly these measures predict player's points in the fantasy premier league. Doing so the thesis can offer FPL managers information on whether ICT index and FDR are worthwhile to follow and if they should be used in guiding team building and captaincy decisions.

The thesis will look into the factors predicting goal scoring in football in the form of a literature review. It to analyze what features are commonly associated with goal scoring and whether the ICT index takes these into account.

The review will also concentrate on the effects of opposition quality in terms of goals scoring probabilities and analyze similarities with the FDR rating.

It will continue by analyzing the features (ICT index and FDR) with regression analysis and compare how well they predict player points, and which is more important, player quality or opposition quality.

Possible improvements and factors that could possibly improve the measures (ICT and FDR) are discussed.

The data utilized in the creation of these metrics is critically examined in the light of the available information, and some possible new forms of data are discussed such as utilization of opponent play styles.