Predictive Power of the Fantasy premier league metrics: Influence-creativity-threat index (ICT) and Fixture Difficulty Rating (FDR)
No Thumbnail Available
Files
bachelor_Paloneva_Lauri_2024.pdf (1.06 MB) (opens in new window)
Aalto login required (access for Aalto Staff only).
URL
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
School of Business |
Bachelor's thesis
Electronic archive copy is available locally at the Harald Herlin Learning Centre. The staff of Aalto University has access to the electronic bachelor's theses by logging into Aaltodoc with their personal Aalto user ID. Read more about the availability of the bachelor's theses.
Unless otherwise stated, all rights belong to the author. You may download, display and print this publication for Your own personal use. Commercial use is prohibited.
Authors
Date
2024
Department
Major/Subject
Mcode
Degree programme
Tieto- ja palvelujohtaminen
Language
en
Pages
23 + 1
Series
Abstract
This thesis discusses the ability to predict player performance in the context of the Fantasy premier league. The thesis will focus on analyzing the predictive power of the Influence-creativity-threat index (ICT) and the fixture difficulty rating (FDR) in explaining the points scored by a player in the fantasy premier league (FPL). The objective of the thesis is to evaluate how significantly these measures predict player's points in the fantasy premier league. Doing so the thesis can offer FPL managers information on whether ICT index and FDR are worthwhile to follow and if they should be used in guiding team building and captaincy decisions. The thesis will look into the factors predicting goal scoring in football in the form of a literature review. It to analyze what features are commonly associated with goal scoring and whether the ICT index takes these into account. The review will also concentrate on the effects of opposition quality in terms of goals scoring probabilities and analyze similarities with the FDR rating. It will continue by analyzing the features (ICT index and FDR) with regression analysis and compare how well they predict player points, and which is more important, player quality or opposition quality. Possible improvements and factors that could possibly improve the measures (ICT and FDR) are discussed. The data utilized in the creation of these metrics is critically examined in the light of the available information, and some possible new forms of data are discussed such as utilization of opponent play styles.Description
Thesis advisor
Seppälä, TomiKeywords
football, linear regression, fantasy football, goal scoring