What to do when you know the future: Implication analysis framework for predictive and explorative scenarios

Abstract

This master’s thesis studies the methodologies and benefits of analysing the im-pacts of alternative future scenarios on businesses. Specifically, it delves into strategic foresight, exploring how organisations can anticipate and prepare for future uncertain-ties using scenarios. The research aims to bridge the gap between predictive or explor-ative scenarios and companies’ businesses, ensuring robust strategy development and operational resilience.

The study employs a comprehensive literature view of scenario planning and its practices. The history, definition, schools, typology, and theoretical benefits of scenario planning were studied. The thesis then studies multiple methods which are used to analyse the implications of scenarios for companies from different perspectives. The methods were evaluated to find the best practice for each scenario analysis activity. Empirical research was conducted, interviewing industry experts in the scenario plan-ning and strategic foresight domains to understand the industry practice and opinions toward the research topic. A case study with Wärtsilä Energy serves as a practical illus-tration, demonstrating how scenarios can inform decision-making, improve existing strategies and business, and enhance organisational responsiveness and adaptability.

The thesis synthesises existing academic publications and industry standards to de-velop a definition for the term “implication analysis” and a framework to guide con-ducting it. Implication analysis is meant for predictive and explorative scenarios in a business context. It aims to comprehensively assess the potential impacts and conse-quences that each future scenario poses on a company. The framework defines the steps to thoroughly analyse the scenario implications throughout the organisation, enabling it to refine strategies and adapt business operations accordingly. Overall, this research contributes to standardising a crucial stage of scenario planning, and eventu-ally enhancing strategic agility and long-term viability of businesses in an ever-changing world.