Modelling the interplay between epidemics and regional socio-economics
Loading...
Access rights
openAccess
publishedVersion
URL
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
A1 Alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessä
This publication is imported from Aalto University research portal.
View publication in the Research portal (opens in new window)
View/Open full text file from the Research portal (opens in new window)
Other link related to publication (opens in new window)
View publication in the Research portal (opens in new window)
View/Open full text file from the Research portal (opens in new window)
Other link related to publication (opens in new window)
Date
2022-10-15
Department
Major/Subject
Mcode
Degree programme
Language
en
Pages
12
Series
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Volume 604, pp. 1-12
Abstract
In this study we present a dynamical agent-based model to investigate the interplay between the socio-economy of and SEIRS-type epidemic spreading over a geographical area, divided to smaller area districts and further to smallest area cells. The model treats the populations of cells and authorities of districts as agents, such that the former can reduce their economic activity and the latter can recommend economic activity reduction both with the overall goal to slow down the epidemic spreading. The agents make decisions with the aim of attaining as high socio-economic standings as possible relative to other agents of the same type by evaluating their standings based on the local and regional infection rates, compliance to the authorities’ regulations, regional drops in economic activity, and efforts to mitigate the spread of epidemic. We find that the willingness of population to comply with authorities’ recommendations has the most drastic effect on the epidemic spreading: periodic waves spread almost unimpeded in non-compliant populations, while in compliant ones the spread is minimal with chaotic spreading pattern and significantly lower infection rates. Health and economic concerns of agents turn out to have lesser roles, the former increasing their efforts and the latter decreasing them.Description
| openaire: EC/H2020/654024/EU//SoBigData | openaire: EC/H2020/871042/EU//SoBigData-PlusPlus | openaire: EC/H2020/818665/EU//UniSDyn Funding Information: KK acknowledge support from EU HORIZON 2020 INFRAIA-1-2014-2015 program project (SoBigData: Social Mining and Big Data Ecosystem) No. 654024 and INFRAIA-2019-1 (SoBigData++:European Integrated Infrastructure for Social Mining and Big Data Analytics) No. 871042 as well as NordForsk Programme for Interdisciplinary Research project “The Network Dynamics of Ethnic Integration” . KK also acknowledges the Visiting Fellowship at The Alan Turing Institute, UK. R.A.B. and J.E.S. acknowledge support from The National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) and Alianza UCMX of the University of California (UC) , through the project included in the Special Call for Binational Collaborative Projects addressing COVID-19. M.J.K. acknowledges funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme, through project “UniSDyn”, grant agreement n:o 818665 . We would like to thank Nadia Barreiro for careful reading of the manuscript and useful suggestions. Publisher Copyright: © 2022 The Authors
Keywords
Agent based modelling, Compartmental epidemic modelling, Economic modelling, Social simulation
Other note
Citation
Snellman, J E, Barrio, R A, Kaski, K K & Käpylä, M J 2022, ' Modelling the interplay between epidemics and regional socio-economics ', Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, vol. 604, 127696, pp. 1-12 . https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2022.127696