Politicians' Luck of the Draw

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Volume Title
A1 Alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessä
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Date
2016-10
Major/Subject
Mcode
Degree programme
Language
en
Pages
26
1269-1294
Series
JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY, Volume 124, issue 5
Abstract
Incumbent politicians tend to receive more votes when economic conditions are good. In this paper we explore the source of this correlation, exploiting the exceptional evidence provided by the Spanish Christmas Lottery. Because winning tickets are typically sold by one lottery outlet, winners tend to be geographically clustered. This allows us to study the impact of exogenous good economic conditions on voting behavior. We find that incumbents receive significantly more votes in winning provinces. The evidence is consistent with a temporary increase in happiness making voters more lenient toward the incumbent, or with a stronger preference for the status quo.
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Keywords
INCOME, WINNERS, EVENTS, PRIZES
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Citation
Fernandez Bagues , M & Esteve-Volart , B 2016 , ' Politicians' Luck of the Draw : Evidence from the Spanish Christmas Lottery ' , JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY , vol. 124 , no. 5 , pp. 1269-1294 . https://doi.org/10.1086/688178