A Bayesian inferential sensor for predicting the reactant concentration in an exothermic chemical process

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Volume Title

A1 Alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessä

Date

2023-10-15

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Language

en

Pages

10

Series

Chemometrics and Intelligent Laboratory Systems, Volume 241

Abstract

In many chemical reactors, concentration measurements are conducted off-line in a laboratory, which involve manual work and can therefore be conducted only infrequently. We propose a Bayesian inferential sensor to predict the reactant concentration in the inlet stream of an exothermic chemical process. The inferential sensor is based on the Bayesian inverse approach and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. It enables the prediction of the reactant concentration at the frequency of automated on-line measurements, which is typically much higher than that of laboratory measurements. We demonstrate the method on real industrial process data from catalytic hydrogenation of aromatic compounds. The predicted aromatics concentration in the inlet stream, generated based on the latest on-line measurements and two-week-old laboratory data, has a coefficient of determination of 0.936 and a root mean square error of 0.654 mass-%.

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We wish to thank Akshaya Athwale, Kristian Bergman, Cesar de Araujo Filho, Muhammad Emzir, Katsiaryna Haitsiukevich, Sakira Hassan, Alexander Ilin, Viljami Iso-Markku, James Kabugo, Sanna Laitinen, Amir Shirdel, Simo Särkkä, Stefan Tötterman for fruitful discussions and insight on the process of catalytic hydrogenation. We acknowledge the financial support from the Academy of Finland through project RELOOP (decision number 330388).

Keywords

inferential sensor, Bayesian analysis, ARIMA, exothermic process, concentration

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Citation

Ikonen, T, Bergman, S & Corona, F 2023, ' A Bayesian inferential sensor for predicting the reactant concentration in an exothermic chemical process ', Chemometrics and Intelligent Laboratory Systems, vol. 241, 104942 . https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chemolab.2023.104942