Regression sensitivity analysis for cash flow simulation based real option valuation

Loading...
Thumbnail Image

Access rights

openAccess
publishedVersion

URL

Journal Title

Journal ISSN

Volume Title

A1 Alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessä

Date

Major/Subject

Mcode

Degree programme

Language

en

Pages

Series

PROCEDIA: SOCIAL AND BEHAVIORAL SCIENCES, Volume 2, issue 6, pp. 7670-7671

Abstract

Sensitivity analysis on financial options considers how the solution changes because of a change in one of the key parameters (underlying asset value, volatility, exercise price, interest rate, time to maturity, dividends). In case of real option valuation with cash flow simulation, however, these are mostly indirect variables which are computed based on the uncertain direct variables – e.g. demand, unit selling price, and unit costs - in the cash flow calculation. The method presented detects the most significant primary variables, and based on this analysis, shows how changes in the direct uncertainties can be used to estimate with the response surface method the simultaneous changes in the indirect parameters defining the underlying asset process and thus the real option value.

Description

Other note

Citation

Haahtela, T 2010, 'Regression sensitivity analysis for cash flow simulation based real option valuation', PROCEDIA: SOCIAL AND BEHAVIORAL SCIENCES, vol. 2, no. 6, pp. 7670-7671. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2010.05.171