The effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on excess mortality: what role for economic factors?
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School of Business |
Master's thesis
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Date
2022
Department
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Mcode
Degree programme
Economics
Language
en
Pages
74
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Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic had a range of direct and indirect health effects. Interventions to restrict the spread of the virus impacted people’s well-being unfavourably. Especially restrictive measures regarding the economy and mobility may have affected health negatively, and thus increased mortality in the population. In this thesis, I have estimated the short-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause and cause-specific mortality in Finland during the first 10 months of the pandemic between March and December 2020. Expected death counts for this period were estimated with a linear regression model by utilising the historical monthly level data set of mortality statistics with the underlying cause of death provided by Official Statistics Finland. Excess fatalities were observed from diabetes (+13%), circulatory system diseases (+7%), digestive and genitourinary system diseases (+6%), nervous system diseases (+5%) and strokes (+5%) compared with the expected number of deaths. Conversely, deaths from other heart diseases (-8%) and respiratory system diseases and infections (-14%) were lower than expected. According to this analysis, no excess deaths occurred from dementia and Alzheimer’s disease, cancer, heart attacks, accidents, violence or suicides. Excess all-cause mortality was estimated as +3% including 558 deaths caused by COVID-19, which equals 1,151 additional deaths compared to expected mortality.Description
Thesis advisor
Domnisoru, CiprianKeywords
covid-19, pandemic, mortality, excess mortality