Modelling aerosol-based exposure to SARSCoV-2 by an agent based Monte Carlo method: Risk estimates in a shop and bar
Loading...
Access rights
openAccess
publishedVersion
URL
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
A1 Alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessä
This publication is imported from Aalto University research portal.
View publication in the Research portal (opens in new window)
View/Open full text file from the Research portal (opens in new window)
View publication in the Research portal (opens in new window)
View/Open full text file from the Research portal (opens in new window)
Date
Major/Subject
Mcode
Degree programme
Language
en
Pages
12
Series
PloS One, Volume 16, issue 11
Abstract
Present day risk assessment on the spreading of airborne viruses is often based on the classical Wells-Riley model assuming immediate mixing of the aerosol into the studied environment. Here, we improve on this approach and the underlying assumptions by modeling the space-time dependency of the aerosol concentration via a transport equation with a dynamic source term introduced by the infected individual(s). In the present agent-based methodology, we study the viral aerosol inhalation exposure risk in two scenarios including a low/high risk scenario of a “supermarket”/“bar”. The model takes into account typical behavioral patterns for determining the rules of motion for the agents. We solve a diffusion model for aerosol concentration in the prescribed environments in order to account for local exposure to aerosol inhalation. We assess the infection risk using the Wells-Riley model formula using a space-time dependent aerosol concentration. The results are compared against the classical Wells-Riley model. The results indicate features that explain individual cases of high risk with repeated sampling of a heterogeneous environment occupied by non-equilibrium concentration clouds. An example is the relative frequency of cases that might be called superspreading events depending on the model parameters. A simple interpretation is that averages of infection risk are often misleading. They also point out and explain the qualitative and quantitative difference between the two cases—shopping is typically safer for a single individual person.Description
Publisher Copyright: © 2021 Salmenjoki et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Keywords
Other note
Citation
Salmenjoki, H, Korhonen, M, Puisto, A, Vuorinen, V & Alava, M J 2021, 'Modelling aerosol-based exposure to SARSCoV-2 by an agent based Monte Carlo method: Risk estimates in a shop and bar', PloS One, vol. 16, no. 11, 0260237. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0260237