A probabilistic model estimating oil spill clean-up costs a case study for the Gulf of Finland.

dc.contributorAalto Universityen
dc.contributor.authorMontewka, Jakuben_US
dc.contributor.authorWeckström, Miaen_US
dc.contributor.authorKujala, Penttien_US
dc.contributor.departmentDepartment of Applied Mechanicsen
dc.descriptionVK: T20404
dc.description.abstractExisting models estimating oil spill costs at sea are based on data from the past, and they usually lack a systematic approach. This make them passive, and limits their ability to forecast the effect of the changes in the oil combating fleet or location of a spill on the oil spill costs. In this paper we make an attempt towards the development of a probabilistic and systematic model estimating the costs of clean-up operations for the Gulf of Finland. For this purpose we utilize expert knowledge along with the available data and information from literature. Then, the obtained information is combined into a framework with the use of a Bayesian Belief Networks. Due to lack of data, we validate the model by comparing its results with existing models, with which we found good agreement. We anticipate that the presented model can contribute to the cost-effective oil-combating fleet optimization for the Gulf of Finland. It can also facilitate the accident consequences estimation in the framework of formal safety assessment (FSA).en
dc.description.versionPeer revieweden
dc.identifier.citationMontewka, J, Weckström, M & Kujala, P 2013, ' A probabilistic model estimating oil spill clean-up costs a case study for the Gulf of Finland. ', Marine Pollution Bulletin, vol. 76, no. 1-2, pp. 61-71 . https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2013.09.031en
dc.identifier.otherPURE UUID: 5fe64efd-b470-4177-b72f-fc36dae2673fen_US
dc.identifier.otherPURE ITEMURL: https://research.aalto.fi/en/publications/5fe64efd-b470-4177-b72f-fc36dae2673fen_US
dc.identifier.otherPURE LINK: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0025326X13005821en_US
dc.identifier.otherPURE FILEURL: https://research.aalto.fi/files/11702597/1_s2.0_S0025326X13005821_main.pdfen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesMARINE POLLUTION BULLETINen
dc.relation.ispartofseriesVolume 76, issue 1-2en
dc.subject.keywordBayesian Belief Networks;en_US
dc.subject.keywordClean-up costs;en_US
dc.subject.keywordMaritime traffic;en_US
dc.subject.keywordOil spill;en_US
dc.subject.keywordRisk analysisen_US
dc.subject.keywordThe Gulf of Finland;en_US
dc.titleA probabilistic model estimating oil spill clean-up costs a case study for the Gulf of Finland.en
dc.typeA1 Alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessäfi