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An exploration on the impact of 2025 US tariffs on the German automotive sector
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School of Business |
Bachelor's thesis
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en
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66 + 6
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This thesis examines the impact of United States tariffs on German auto-motive exports, with a particular focus on differences across product categories. Using monthly export data from 2021 to 2025 obtained from the German Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), the analysis applies a series of difference-in-differences (DiD) models at the sector, product and country levels. The results indicate that, at an aggregate level, tariffs are associated with a decline in German automotive exports. However, disaggregated analyses reveal substantial heterogeneity across product categories. Country-level results show no statistically significant tariff effect for passenger vehicles (consumer goods) or automotive parts (intermediate goods). In contrast, exports of dump trucks (capital goods) exhibit a large and negative response to tariffs, suggesting that investment-related trade is particularly sensitive to increases in trade costs and uncertainty.