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Long-term scenario modelling for sustainable climate change mitigation and adaption
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School of Science |
Doctoral thesis (article-based)
| Defence date: 2025-12-05
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en
Pages
51 + app. 87
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Aalto University publication series Doctoral Theses, 252/2025
Abstract
Global land systems can either mitigate or exacerbate climate change and its impacts. To utilise and protect land effectively, there is a need for timely, accessible foresight on landbased climate change impacts and mitigation strategies. This dissertation examines interactions between human-managed land systems and climate change through computational modelling and scenario analysis extending to 2100. Across four papers (I–IV), it delivers regional and global foresight under climatic and societal scenarios, and introduces two novel, lightweight, open-source models to bridge the gap between highly detailed, computationally expensive integrated assessment models and simple ones.
Specifically, Paper I investigates worst-case climate change impacts on hazardous driving and walking conditions in Northern Europe. Using a road surface energy balance model driven by regional climate projections, it is found that while the slip season may shorten with warming, its intensity could increase. Paper II presents the fast global land-use model CLASH, which integrates forestry, dynamic vegetation, and optimisation models into a single framework. A carbon stock maximisation experiment illustrates the utility of CLASH, reaffirming that reduced animal products consumption and tropical forest conservation are key mitigation levers. Paper III links CLASH to global energy, materials, and climate systems to form the complex yet lightweight integrated assessment model SuCCESs. A Monte Carlo experiment demonstrates its stochastic capabilities, revealing moderate sensitivity of fossil emissions and low sensitivity of land-use emissions to key parameters. Paper IV builds on Papers II and III, using SuCCESs to explore a wide scenario space informed by current uncertainties in land-based mitigation potential research. The analysis highlights critical system interactions, particularly between land and climate policy: When land is freed (e.g., via reduced product demand), policy must incentivise its use for mitigation. Conversely, if land use is constrained through preservation, mitigation incentives become redundant, as land-use change emissions are sufficiently avoided.
In summary, this dissertation pairs global climate mitigation with local impacts, underscoring the need for harmonised cross-sectoral policies. Future work is called to strengthen stakeholder integration and expand regional data to improve scenario relevance and policy robustness.
Description
Supervising professor
Salo, Ahti, Prof., Aalto University School of Science, Department of Mathematics and Systems Analysis, FinlandThesis advisor
Ekholm, Tommi, Research Professor, Finnish Meteorological Institute, FinlandPartanen, Antti-Ilari, Senior Research Scientist, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Finland
Other note
Parts
- [Publication 1]: Nadine-Cyra Freistetter, Erika Médus, Marjo Hippi, Markku Kangas, Andreas Dobler, Danijel Belušić, Jukka Käyhkö, Antti-Ilari Partanen. (2022) Climate change impacts on future driving and walking conditions in Finland, Norway and Sweden. Regional Environmental Change 22, 58 (2022).
DOI: 10.1007/s10113-022-01920-4 View at publisher
- [Publication 2]: Tommi Ekholm, Nadine-Cyra Freistetter, Aapo Rautiainen, Laura Thölix. (2024) CLASH – Climate-responsive land allocation model with carbon storage and harvests. Geoscientific Model Development 17, 3041–3062.
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-17-3041-2024 View at publisher
- [Publication 3]: Tommi Ekholm, Nadine-Cyra Freistetter, Tuukka Mattlar, Theresa Schaber, Aapo Rautiainen. (2024) SuCCESs – a global IAM for exploring the interactions between energy, materials, land-use and climate systems in long-term scenarios (model version 2024-10-23). Geoscientific Model Development 18, 4805–4822.
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-18-4805-2025 View at publisher
- [Publication 4]: Nadine-Cyra Freistetter, Tommi Ekholm, Ilkka Keppo, Antti-Ilari Partanen. (2025) Sensitivity of global land-based mitigation potential to land-use scenarios and interactions across sectors. Submitted for publication, May 2025.
DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6573840/v1 View at publisher