Are Extreme Returns Determinants of Cross-sectional Expected Stock Returns? MAX effect in the Finnish market

Abstract

I investigate a recently proposed asset pricing anomaly MAX effect, i.e. the extreme positive returns in the previous month, in the cross-sectional pricing of stocks in Finland. The results confirm that there exists significant negative MAX effect in the Finnish market. The equal-weighted return difference between high-MAX and low-MAX portfolios is −1.11% per month, with corresponding alpha spread of −0.16%. Both values are statistically significant at 5% level. However, the negative MAX effect is not robust for value-weighted portfolios. These results are consistent with previous research that the negative MAX effect in the European stock market is concentrated in small-sized companies. I conducted bivariate sorting analysis and firm-level cross-sectional regression, and conclude that the negative MAX effect is significant after controlling for size, value, skewness, momentum, short-term reversal and idiosyncratic volatility. Moreover, I discussed the relationship between the MAX effect and idiosyncratic volatility effect (IV). While both MAX and IV are negatively related to the expected future returns, MAX is not a substitute for IV. However, I did not observe a positive idiosyncratic volatility effect in the Finnish stock market after controlling for MAX, as Bali et al. (2011) recorded in their study.