Are extreme returns determinants of cross-sectional expected stock returns? MAX effect in the Finnish market

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School of Business | Master's thesis
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Date

2018

Department

Rahoituksen laitos

Major/Subject

Mcode

Degree programme

Finance

Language

en

Pages

29+3

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Abstract

I investigate a recently proposed asset pricing anomaly MAX effect, i.e. the extreme positive returns in the previous month, in the cross-sectional pricing of stocks in Finland. The results confirm that there exists significant negative MAX effect in the Finnish market. The equal-weighted return difference between high-MAX and low-MAX portfolios is −1.11% per month, with corresponding alpha spread of −0.16%. Both values are statistically significant at 5% level. However, the negative MAX effect is not robust for value-weighted portfolios. These results are consistent with previous research that the negative MAX effect in the European stock market is concentrated in small-sized companies. I conducted bivariate sorting analysis and firm-level cross-sectional regression, and conclude that the negative MAX effect is significant after controlling for size, value, skewness, momentum, short-term reversal and idiosyncratic volatility. Moreover, I discussed the relationship between the MAX effect and idiosyncratic volatility effect (IV). While both MAX and IV are negatively related to the expected future returns, MAX is not a substitute for IV. However, I did not observe a positive idiosyncratic volatility effect in the Finnish stock market after controlling for MAX, as Bali et al. (2011) recorded in their study.

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Thesis advisor

Jylhä, Petri

Keywords

MAX effect, extreme return, lottery-type stocks, cross-sectional stock returns

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https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:aalto-201902101596

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[gradu] Kauppakorkeakoulu / BIZ