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How the choice of valuation approach affects company’s target price accuracy and minimizes the forecast error
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School of Business |
Bachelor's thesis
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en
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58+12
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This thesis explores the relationship between the choice of valuation approach and its impacts on target price accuracy, with a focus on the comparison of the forecast error rates of three different valuations from 2005 to 2024 to observe which valuation yields the least forecast error rates. Incorporating quantitative financial data to examine linear regression analysis addressing Gauss-Markov assumptions and comparison of MAPE of forecast error rates, the study reveals that market-based valuation produces the least forecast error rates within the samples. In addition, the study provides empirical findings that employing hybrid approach in company valuation provides a more comprehensive company valuation, thus improving the accuracy of target prices. Furthermore, this thesis explores historical patterns of forecast error rates during the economic downturns, observing that forecast error rates dispersed particularly during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and the 2020 Covid-19 pandemic, thus reducing target price accuracy.