Risk premium and seasonality of Nordic day-ahead electricity futures

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School of Business | Bachelor's thesis
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Date
2022
Major/Subject
Mcode
Degree programme
Rahoitus
Language
en
Pages
28
Series
Abstract
This study examines the risk premiums and seasonality of Nordic day-ahead electricity futures by analyzing their forecast errors and prices. The data used in this study is from the Nord Pool market from 2010 to 2020. The previous literature has found that electricity futures have relatively high risk premiums when compared to other commodity futures. Similarly, to the previous findings, I find that Nordic day-ahead futures have high forecast errors that could be explained by high risk premiums or pricing inefficiencies. The seasonality of electricity futures is a topic on which the previous literature has not found common opinion. The results from this study suggest that day-ahead electricity future risk premiums do not have clear seasonal patterns.
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Thesis advisor
Shin, Sean
Keywords
day-ahead electricity future, risk premium, seasonality, Nordic
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