Improving forecast accuracy and reliability by judgmental methods
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School of Business | Master's thesis
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AbstractThe purpose of this thesis is to find ways to improve the accuracy and reliability of forecasts that are used by the case company. The suggestions made in this thesis have not been implemented yet, so there are no results to show at this stage. But many of the suggestions will be implemented in the future. I have personal experiences which I have exploited in this thesis, I have also had discussions with the CEO and the Head of Sales related to this thesis and the forecasting process in the case company. In addition to these discussions I have had several discussions related to forecasting with other members of the management team in the case company. As the case company is entering into new markets there is no reliable historical data to use for any statistical analyzes. So the statistical methods are not applicable at the case company. The findings in this thesis show that there is not one correct method that could be used in all the items which are forecasted at the case company. But to generalize one could say that by using more group judgment instead of visionary methods the accuracy of the forecasts should improve. Also the accuracy of the forecasts cannot be forgotten, it needs to be an ongoing work to keep the accuracy on an acceptable level.
judgmental methods, forecast