A multi-model analysis of teleconnected crop yield variability in a range of cropping systems

dc.contributorAalto-yliopistofi
dc.contributorAalto Universityen
dc.contributor.authorHeino, Matiasen_US
dc.contributor.authorGuillaume, Joseph H.A.en_US
dc.contributor.authorMüller, Christophen_US
dc.contributor.authorIizumi, Toshichikaen_US
dc.contributor.authorKummu, Mattien_US
dc.contributor.departmentDepartment of Built Environmenten
dc.contributor.groupauthorWater and Environmental Engineeringen
dc.contributor.organizationPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Researchen_US
dc.contributor.organizationNational Agriculture and Food Research Organizationen_US
dc.date.accessioned2020-02-28T09:30:46Z
dc.date.available2020-02-28T09:30:46Z
dc.date.issued2020-02-11en_US
dc.description| openaire: EC/H2020/819202/EU//SOS.aquaterra
dc.description.abstractClimate oscillations are periodically fluctuating oceanic and atmospheric phenomena, which are related to variations in weather patterns and crop yields worldwide. In terms of crop production, the most widespread impacts have been observed for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which has been found to impact crop yields on all continents that produce crops, while two other climate oscillations - the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) - have been shown to especially impact crop production in Australia and Europe, respectively. In this study, we analyse the impacts of ENSO, IOD, and NAO on the growing conditions of maize, rice, soybean, and wheat at the global scale by utilising crop yield data from an ensemble of global gridded crop models simulated for a range of crop management scenarios. Our results show that, while accounting for their potential co-variation, climate oscillations are correlated with simulated crop yield variability to a wide extent (half of all maize and wheat harvested areas for ENSO) and in several important crop-producing areas, e.g. in North America (ENSO, wheat), Australia (IOD and ENSO, wheat), and northern South America (ENSO, soybean). Further, our analyses show that higher sensitivity to these oscillations can be observed for rainfed and fully fertilised scenarios, while the sensitivity tends to be lower if crops were to be fully irrigated. Since the development of ENSO, IOD, and NAO can potentially be forecasted well in advance, a better understanding about the relationship between crop production and these climate oscillations can improve the resilience of the global food system to climate-related shocks.en
dc.description.versionPeer revieweden
dc.format.extent16
dc.format.extent113-128
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen_US
dc.identifier.citationHeino, M, Guillaume, J H A, Müller, C, Iizumi, T & Kummu, M 2020, ' A multi-model analysis of teleconnected crop yield variability in a range of cropping systems ', Earth System Dynamics, vol. 11, no. 1, pp. 113-128 . https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-113-2020en
dc.identifier.doi10.5194/esd-11-113-2020en_US
dc.identifier.issn2190-4979
dc.identifier.otherPURE UUID: d50e8d1e-8c6e-424e-ae21-4d0255c9e6d2en_US
dc.identifier.otherPURE ITEMURL: https://research.aalto.fi/en/publications/d50e8d1e-8c6e-424e-ae21-4d0255c9e6d2en_US
dc.identifier.otherPURE LINK: http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85079485164&partnerID=8YFLogxKen_US
dc.identifier.otherPURE FILEURL: https://research.aalto.fi/files/41196309/esd_11_113_2020.pdfen_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://aaltodoc.aalto.fi/handle/123456789/43266
dc.identifier.urnURN:NBN:fi:aalto-202002282315
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherCopernicus Gesellschaft mbH
dc.relationinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/819202/EU//SOS.aquaterraen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesEARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICSen
dc.relation.ispartofseriesVolume 11, issue 1en
dc.rightsopenAccessen
dc.titleA multi-model analysis of teleconnected crop yield variability in a range of cropping systemsen
dc.typeA1 Alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessäfi
dc.type.versionpublishedVersion

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