Climate change risks pushing one-third of global food production outside the safe climatic space
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A1 Alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessä
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Date
2021-05-21
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Language
en
Pages
10
720-729
720-729
Series
One Earth, Volume 4, issue 5
Abstract
Food production on our planet is dominantly based on agricultural practices developed during stable Holocene climatic conditions. Although it is widely accepted that climate change perturbs these conditions, no systematic understanding exists on where and how the major risks for entering unprecedented conditions may occur. Here, we address this gap by introducing the concept of safe climatic space (SCS), which incorporates the decisive climatic factors of agricultural production: precipitation, temperature, and aridity. We show that a rapid and unhalted growth of greenhouse gas emissions (SSP5–8.5) could force 31% of the global food crop and 34% of livestock production beyond the SCS by 2081–2100. The most vulnerable areas are South and Southeast Asia and Africa's Sudano-Sahelian Zone, which have low resilience to cope with these changes. Our results underpin the importance of committing to a low-emissions scenario (SSP1–2.6), whereupon the extent of food production facing unprecedented conditions would be a fraction.Description
| openaire: EC/H2020/819202/EU//SOS.aquaterra Funding Information: M.K. received financial support from the Academy of Finland projects WASCO (grant 305471), WATVUL (grant 317320), and TREFORM (grant 339834); the Academy of Finland SRC project ?Winland?; the Emil Aaltonen Foundation project ?eat-less-water?; and the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme (grant agreement 819202). M.H. and M.T. received financial support from Maa- ja Vesitekniikan Tuki Ry. M.H. was also supported by the Aalto University Engineering doctoral program. We appreciate the help of Johannes Piipponen with livestock production data. M.K. D.V. and M.H. designed the research with support from all co-authors. M.K. and D.V. compiled the Holdridge life zone mapping. M.H. and M.K. performed the spatial analyses with support from D.V. M.K. led the writing of the manuscript with contributions from all co-authors. We declare no competing financial interests. Funding Information: M.K. received financial support from the Academy of Finland projects WASCO (grant 305471 ), WATVUL (grant 317320 ), and TREFORM (grant 339834 ); the Academy of Finland SRC project “Winland”; the Emil Aaltonen Foundation project “eat-less-water”; and the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme (grant agreement 819202 ). M.H. and M.T. received financial support from Maa- ja Vesitekniikan Tuki Ry . M.H. was also supported by the Aalto University Engineering doctoral program. We appreciate the help of Johannes Piipponen with livestock production data. Publisher Copyright: © 2021 The Authors
Keywords
climate change, climatic conditions, crop production, Holdridge life zones, livestock production, safe operating space
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Citation
Kummu, M, Heino, M, Taka, M, Varis, O & Viviroli, D 2021, ' Climate change risks pushing one-third of global food production outside the safe climatic space ', One Earth, vol. 4, no. 5, pp. 720-729 . https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.04.017