The China trade shock on BRI countries’ exports through supply and demand shocks: Evidence from 2000-2021

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Volume Title
School of Business | Master's thesis
Date
2024
Major/Subject
Mcode
Degree programme
Economics
Language
en
Pages
61+11
Series
Abstract
This paper studies the consequences of China’s massive trade expansion, which began in the 1990s on countries that participate in the Belt and Road initiative (BRI). The Belt and Road initiative is one of China’s largest investment programs. It was launched in 2013 and included 143 participating countries from Asia, Africa, the Middle East, Europe, and the Americas as of 2021. I find that the growth of China’s imports had a positive and statistically significant effect on BRI countries’ exports during 2000-2010 and 2011-2021 in sectors with a higher initial similarity to the China’s import structure. Contrary to that, the growth of China’ exports had a negative effect on BRI countries’ exports in sectors with a higher initial similarity to the China’s export structure during 2000-2010 and a positive effect during 2011-2021 being statistically significant both times. Magnitudes of both variables were at their highest around two events: China’s accession to the World Trade Organisation in 2001 and the launch of the Belt and Road initiative in 2013. This study contributes to the literature on the effect of China’s trade expansion on global trade by providing novel evidence of a shift in time of the effect of China’s higher exports on BRI countries’ exports.
Description
Thesis advisor
Warnes, Pablo
Keywords
vyö ja tie -hanke, Kiinan tuonnin kasvu, Kiinan viennin kasvu, Kiinan kauppa
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