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Finnish energy market modelling to identify electrification opportunities in pulp and paper industry
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School of Engineering |
Master's thesis
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en
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57
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This thesis assesses the role and economic feasibility of electric boilers in Finland’s pulp and paper industry by 2050 within an integrated, decarbonized electricity, heat and hydrogen system. Nine scenarios are modelled and simulated using a linear optimization model in Python for 10-year optimization intervals up to 2050. These scenarios reflect key transitions such as expanding low‑carbon electricity, electrifying district heating, advancing eFuels projects, steel decarbonization via hydrogen-DRI and EAF and pulp lime kiln electrification, under uncertainties in technology costs, efficiencies, storage, nuclear policy, and wind availability. In addition, two nuclear scenarios, capacity capped to the existing level and capacity uncapped allowed to grow based on the demand, are evaluated as part of the study. The analysis examines how variable renewables, import/exports, dispatchable capacity, nuclear development and flexible demand interact with biomass and electric-based options supporting adequacy and price stability. Power mixes indicate wind dominance or nuclear-wind parity in Finland’s future electricity system with biogas turbines providing flexible backup over hydrogen and carbon captured systems. In heating, bio-based boilers anchor supply, while heat pumps lead where biomass is constrained. Electric boilers, though not dominant, provide rapid response, peak shaving, and grid-balancing value, particularly in wind‑heavy conditions and industry setups with periodic heat boosts. Depending on nuclear policy, wind curtailment and the scale of electrification in other sectors, hydrogen acts as a flexible sink for surplus renewable electricity and a key enabler for fossil-free steel and eFuels. The study positions electric boilers as strategically important, cost‑effective enablers of flexibility and decarbonization for the pulp and paper sector.
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Keppo, IlkkaThesis advisor
Hiltunen, JuhoTarvainen, Sami