Future Transboundary Water Stress and Its Drivers Under Climate Change : A Global Study

dc.contributorAalto-yliopistofi
dc.contributorAalto Universityen
dc.contributor.authorMunia, Hafsa Ahmeden_US
dc.contributor.authorGuillaume, Joseph H.A.en_US
dc.contributor.authorWada, Yoshihideen_US
dc.contributor.authorVeldkamp, Teden_US
dc.contributor.authorVirkki, Vilien_US
dc.contributor.authorKummu, Mattien_US
dc.contributor.departmentDepartment of Built Environmenten
dc.contributor.groupauthorWater and Environmental Eng.en
dc.contributor.organizationInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)en_US
dc.date.accessioned2020-08-06T12:12:08Z
dc.date.available2020-08-06T12:12:08Z
dc.date.issued2020-07-01en_US
dc.description| openaire: EC/H2020/819202/EU//SOS.aquaterra
dc.description.abstractVarious transboundary river basins are facing increased pressure on water resources in near future. However, little is known ab out the future drivers globally, namely, changes in natural local runoff and natural inflows from upstream parts of a basin, as well as local and upstream water consumption. Here we use an ensemble of four global hydrological models forced by five global climate models and the latest greenhouse-gas concentration (RCP) and socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios to assess the impact of these drivers on transboundary water stress in the past and future. Our results show that population under water stress is expected to increase by 50% under a low population growth and emissions scenario (SSP1-RCP2.6) and double under a high population growth and emission scenario (SSP3-RCP6.0), compared to the year 2010. As changes in water availability have a smaller effect when water is not yet scarce, changes in water stress globally are dominated by local water consumption—managing local demand is thus necessary in order to avoid future stress. Focusing then on the role of upstream changes, we identified upstream availability (i.e., less natural runoff or increased water consumption) as the dominant driver of changes in net water availability in most downstream areas. Moreover, an increased number of people will be living in areas dependent on upstream originating water in 2050. International water treaties and management will therefore have an increasingly crucial role in these hot spot regions to ensure fair management of transboundary water resources.en
dc.description.versionPeer revieweden
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen_US
dc.identifier.citationMunia, H A, Guillaume, J H A, Wada, Y, Veldkamp, T, Virkki, V & Kummu, M 2020, ' Future Transboundary Water Stress and Its Drivers Under Climate Change : A Global Study ', Earth's Future, vol. 8, no. 7, e2019EF001321 . https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001321en
dc.identifier.doi10.1029/2019EF001321en_US
dc.identifier.issn2328-4277
dc.identifier.otherPURE UUID: 0b5f9e5c-ad1a-48ea-b3a0-225c4b123ea5en_US
dc.identifier.otherPURE ITEMURL: https://research.aalto.fi/en/publications/0b5f9e5c-ad1a-48ea-b3a0-225c4b123ea5en_US
dc.identifier.otherPURE LINK: http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85088560832&partnerID=8YFLogxKen_US
dc.identifier.otherPURE FILEURL: https://research.aalto.fi/files/44604996/2019EF001321.pdfen_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://aaltodoc.aalto.fi/handle/123456789/45484
dc.identifier.urnURN:NBN:fi:aalto-202008064443
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherWiley
dc.relationinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/819202/EU//SOS.aquaterraen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesEarth's Futureen
dc.relation.ispartofseriesVolume 8, issue 7en
dc.rightsopenAccessen
dc.subject.keywordclimate changeen_US
dc.subject.keywordrepresentative concentration pathwaysen_US
dc.subject.keywordshared socioeconomic pathwaysen_US
dc.subject.keywordtransboundary riveren_US
dc.subject.keywordwater stressen_US
dc.titleFuture Transboundary Water Stress and Its Drivers Under Climate Change : A Global Studyen
dc.typeA1 Alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessäfi
dc.type.versionpublishedVersion
Files