Susceptibility of global crop production to climate variability and change
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School of Engineering |
Doctoral thesis (article-based)
| Defence date: 2022-02-25
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Author
Date
2022
Major/Subject
Mcode
Degree programme
Language
en
Pages
57 + app. 73
Series
Aalto University publication series DOCTORAL THESES, 28/2022
Abstract
For millennia, humans have grown their food in relatively stable Holocene climatic conditions, which are now perturbed by anthropogenic climate change. Weather is an inseparable part of food production, and floods, droughts, and heatwaves remain a nuisance to farmers around the globe. Approximately, a third of global crop yield variability is caused by climate variations with even higher sensitivities reported for maize and wheat, both highly important global food commodities. Hence, a comprehensive understanding about the impacts of climate variability and change on global crop production is imperative to ensure a sufficient and stable food supply for the growing global population. Although the threats posed by climate change are widely acknowledged and researched, the extent of global food crop production at risk of experiencing novel climatic conditions due to climate change has not yet been quantified. Climate change is also projected to increase the frequency of extreme weather events. However, it remains unclear how these changes will relate to agriculture. For example, it is not fully understood how co-occurring extremes impact crop yields, and whether there have been any historical changes in their probability. Interannual variations in climatic conditions are also partially driven by climate oscillations. Predictions about their status could potentially provide useful information for preparing against adverse weather. However, this would require more detailed understanding about their relationship with crop productivity. This dissertation reveals that climate change might push up to a third of global food crop production to unprecedented climatic conditions if nations continue to increase their greenhouse gas emissions. Further, it finds that weather extremes often reduce crop productivity, with co-occurring heat and drought leading to the largest impacts. Alarmingly, the probability of hot and dry weather has increased in recent decades, especially during the wheat growing season for example in Europe and North America. Finally, this dissertation finds that large-scale climate cycles, such as the El NiƱo Southern-Oscillation, influence agriculture across all continents that produce crops, with strong impacts observed, for example, in many parts of Australia, Africa, and South America. Climate change has already affected global crop production; future solutions should therefore concentrate on increasing the resilience of farming systems to anomalous weather, in addition to mitigation actions. Development of early warning systems, and agricultural monitoring as well as improving water and soil management with, for example, irrigation and conservation agriculture could provide viable options to manage these increased climatic risks.Vuosituhansien saatossa ihmiskunta on sopeutunut kasvattamaan ruokansa suotuisassa holoseenikauden ilmastossa. Nyt ihmistoiminnan aiheuttama ilmastonmuutos uhkaa muokata ilmastoa niin, ettƤ maatalouden sopeutuminen ei pysy perƤssƤ. SƤƤ on erottamaton osa ruoantuotantoa: tulvat, kuivuudet ja lƤmpƶaallot ovat piinanneet maanviljelijƶitƤ kautta historian, ja noin kolmasosa maailman viljelykasvien satoisuuden vaihteluista johtuu kasvukauden sƤƤstƤ. Jotta voisimme taata riittƤvƤsti ravintoa kasvavalle ihmiskunnalle, on vƤlttƤmƤtƶntƤ, ettƤ meillƤ on globaali ymmƤrrys ilmastonvaihtelun ja -muutoksen vaikutuksista maatalouteen. Vaikka ilmastonmuutoksen uhat on tunnustettu ja niitƤ on tutkittu laajalti, on yhƤ epƤselvƤƤ, missƤ mƤƤrin ilmastonmuutos uhkaa siirtƤƤ ruoantuotantoa ilmasto-olosuhteisiin, joissa ei tƤllƤ hetkellƤ tuoteta ruokaa lainkaan. Ilmastonmuutoksen on myƶs arvioitu lisƤƤvƤn ilmaston ƤƤri-ilmiƶitƤ, mutta niiden vaikutuksia ruoantuotantoon ei vielƤ tunneta hyvin. Esimerkiksi arviot samanaikaisten ƤƤri-ilmiƶiden vaikutuksista ruokakasvien satoisuuteen ovat yhƤ epƤvarmoja, minkƤ lisƤksi on epƤselvƤƤ, onko niiden esiintyvyydessƤ tapahtunut muutoksia. Myƶs laajat ilmastosyklit vaikuttavat ilmaston ƤƤri-ilmiƶiden esiintymiseen ympƤri maailman. YmmƤrrys niiden yhteyksistƤ satoisuuteen voisi auttaa varautumaan ilmastonvaihteluista aiheutuviin haittoihin maataloudessa. TƤmƤ vƤitƶskirja arvioi, ettƤ ilmastonmuutos siirtƤƤ kolmanneksen maailman viljelykasvien tuotannosta ilmastollisesti ennennƤkemƤttƶmiin olosuhteisiin, mikƤli kasvihuonepƤƤstƶt jatkavat kasvuaan. TƤmƤn lisƤksi vƤitƶskirja havaitsi, ettƤ ilmaston ƤƤri-ilmiƶt laskevat satoisuutta yleisesti, samanaikaisten helleaaltojen ja kuivuuksien aiheuttaessa suurimmat satomenetykset. Huolestuttavasti, samanaikaisten helteiden ja kuivuuksien todennƤkƶisyys on kasvanut viimeisten vuosikymmenten aikana erityisesti vehnƤn kasvukaudella esimerkiksi Euroopassa ja Pohjois-Amerikassa. Lopuksi, tƤmƤ vƤitƶskirja havaitsi, ettƤ laajat ilmastosyklit, kuten El NiƱo Southern-Oscillation -ilmiƶ, vaikuttavat maatalouteen ympƤri maailman, erityisesti Australiassa, sekƤ monissa osissa Afrikkaa ja EtelƤ-Amerikkaa. On selvƤƤ, ettƤ ilmastonmuutos vaikuttaa ruoantuotantoon ympƤri maailman; pƤƤstƶvƤhennysten lisƤksi olisikin tƤrkeƤƤ sopeuttaa ruoantuotantoa muuttuviin ilmasto-olosuhteisiin jo nyt. Maatalouden systemaattinen monitorointi ja jƤrjestelmƤt, jotka mahdollistavat ennenaikaisen varautumisen epƤsuotuisiin sƤƤoloihin, sekƤ esimerkiksi kastelun sekƤ hiiliviljelyn edistƤminen voivat olla vaihtoehtoja kasvattamaan globaalin ruokajƤrjestelmƤn resilienssiƤ lisƤƤntyville ilmastoriskeille.Description
Defence is held on 25.2.2022 12:00 ā 15:00
Zoom; https://aalto.zoom.us/s/66893209461
Supervising professor
Kummu, Matti, Assoc. Prof., Aalto University, Department of Built Environment, FinlandKeywords
food production, crop production, climate change, climate variability, ruoantuotanto, ilmastonvaihtelut, ilmastonmuutos
Other note
Parts
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[Publication 1]: Kummu, Matti; Heino, Matias; Taka, Maija; Varis, Olli; Viviroli, Daniel. 2021. Climate change risks pushing one-third of global food production outside the safe climatic space. One Earth, volume 4, issue 5.
Full text in Acris/Aaltodoc: http://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:aalto-202106097260DOI: 10.1016/j.oneear.2021.04.017 View at publisher
- [Publication 2]: Heino, Matias; Kinnunen, Pekka; Anderson, Weston; Ray, Deepak; Puma, Michael J.; Varis, Olli; Kummu, Matti. Increased probability of hot and dry weather extremes during the growing season threatens global crop yields . Submitted to PNAS on August 31st, 2021 and subsequently accepted for peer review
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[Publication 3]: Borgomeo, Edoardo; Khan, Hassaan F.; Heino, Matias; Zaveri, Esha; Kummu, Matti; Brown, Casey; JƤgerskog, Anders. 2020. Impact of green water anomalies on global rainfed crop yields. Environmental Research Letters, volume 15, issue 12.
Full text in Acris/Aaltodoc: http://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:aalto-2020123160499DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abc587 View at publisher
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[Publication 4]: Heino, Matias; Puma, Michael J.; Ward, Philip J.; Gerten, Dieter; Heck, Vera; Siebert, Stefan; Kummu, Matti. 2018. Two-thirds of global cropland area impacted by climate oscillations. Nature Communications, volume 9, issue 1.
Full text in Acris/Aaltodoc: http://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:aalto-201805222251DOI: 10.1038/s41467-017-02071-5 View at publisher
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[Publication 5]: Heino, Matias; Guillaume, Joseph H.A.; MĆ¼ller, Christoph; Iizumi, Toshichika; Kummu, Matti. 2020. A multi-model analysis of teleconnected crop yield variability in a range of cropping systems. Earth System Dynamics, volume 11, issue 1.Full text in Acris/Aaltodoc: http://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:aalto-202002282315.
DOI: 10.5194/esd-11-113-2020 View at publisher
