Analysing the impact of weather on passenger train punctuality: A study of the Helsinki–Tampere rail corridor

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School of Business | Bachelor's thesis
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Date

2025

Department

Tieto- ja palvelujohtamisen laitos

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Degree programme

Tieto- ja palvelujohtaminen

Language

en

Pages

26

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Abstract

The overall punctuality of the railway system is vital for passengers who depend on trains as a reliable mode of public transport. Identifying the factors that cause train delays is an essential step toward improving service reliability. Among these factors, weather conditions are widely recognized as a significant contributor to disruptions in railway operations. This thesis examines the impact of various weather variables including temperature, precipitation and snow depth on the punctuality of long-distance trains along one of Finland’s busiest rail corridors between Helsinki and Tampere. Using daily train operation data obtained from Fintraffic, the study covers an eight-year period from 2017 to 2024. Through correlation and regression analyses, the research quantifies how different weather conditions influence delays on this key railway segment. The results show that snow depth has the strongest negative impact on punctuality, followed by precipitation and low temperatures, and that winter months experience the greatest delays. These findings provide practical guidance for railway operators to mitigate weather-related disruptions through targeted maintenance and operational planning.

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Thesis advisor

Movarrei, Reza

Keywords

train punctuality, railway operations, weather impacts, regression analysis, snow depth, precipitation, temperature

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https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:aalto-202510268575

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