Day-ahead Prediction of Building District Heat Demand for Smart Energy Management and Automation in Decentralized Energy Systems

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Conference article in proceedings
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Date
2019
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Language
en
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Proceedings of the 17th IEEE International Conference on Industrial Informatics, INDIN 2019, IEEE International Conference on Industrial Informatics
Abstract
This paper proposes an Artificial Intelligence (AI) based data-driven approach to forecast heat demand for various customer types in a District Heating System (DHS). The proposed day-ahead forecasting approach is based on a hybrid model consisting of Imperialistic Competitive Algorithm (ICA) and Support Vector Machine (SVM). The model is built using two years (2015 - 2016) of hourly data from various buildings in the Otaniemi area of Espoo, Finland. Day-ahead forecast models are also developed using Persistence and four other AI based techniques. Comparative forecasting performance analysis among these techniques was performed. The proposed ICA-SVM heat demand forecasting model is tested and validated using an out-of-sample one-year (2017) hourly data of the buildings’ district heat consumption. The prediction results are presented for the out-of-sample testing days in a one-hour time interval. The validation results demonstrate that the devised model is able to predict the buildings’ heat demand with an improved accuracy and short computation time. Moreover, the proposed model demonstrates outperformed prediction accuracy improvement, compared to the other five evaluated models.
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Keywords
SVM, ICA, District heating, Prediction, Energy efficiency, Energy management, AI, Machine learning, Building, Decentralized energy systems, Smart cities, Smart grid
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Citation
Eseye , A T , Lehtonen , M , Tukia , T , Uimonen , S & Millar , R J 2019 , Day-ahead Prediction of Building District Heat Demand for Smart Energy Management and Automation in Decentralized Energy Systems . in Proceedings of the 17th IEEE International Conference on Industrial Informatics, INDIN 2019 : Industrial Applications of Artificial Intelligence . IEEE International Conference on Industrial Informatics , IEEE , pp. 1694-1699 , IEEE International Conference on Industrial Informatics , Helsinki and Espoo , Finland , 22/07/2019 . https://doi.org/10.1109/INDIN41052.2019.8972297