Risk-aware decision making in the safety investments - Application of stochastic simulations and judgment value method

Abstract

We propose a methodology for risk-aware decision making related to the investment in safety. The methodology consists of probabilistic risk assessment and following cost-benefit analysis upon calculated risk values. We introduce a web-based tool for computing the risk for various safety regimes. The tool makes use of joint fire and evacuation modelling along with Monte Carlo sampling for uncertain or variate input variables. The results include individual as well as societal risk values, related to fatalities or serious injuries. The obtained changes in risk values – related to the applied safety measures – define an input for the cost-benefit analysis. The analysis is based on the Life Quality Index and J-value judgement method. As a case study, we used the hotel part of a seven-story mixed-use building. We designed the methodology to be applicable in day-to-day engineering calculations related to the safety of the building as well as other purposes, such as the introduction of the new product to the market. Therefore, in this article, we focus on the practical aspect of the methodology.