Estimating deformation energy in ship-ship collisions with stochastic modeling
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School of Engineering |
Master's thesis
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Date
2010
Department
Major/Subject
Laivanrakennusoppi
Mcode
Kul-24
Degree programme
Language
en
Pages
107
Series
Abstract
The goal of the thesis is to create a general model for estimating the deformation energy in ship - ship collisions with traffic information available in AIS (Automatic identification System). The analysis concentrates on selected high risk area between Helsinki and Tallinn where densely trafficked waterways cross. Even though special attention is paid to the Gulf of Finland, the model is applicable to any given sea area by utilizing local AIS data on maritime traffic. The AIS data will be applied to achieve a realistic and updateable traffic profile. Each waterway specific traffic profile will consist of distributions of the main ship particulars in addition to the speed and the heading for each ship type. Since the AIS data does not include all required information about the ships, some additional statistics is collected, for example the distributions of ship type specific block coefficients. The effects of manoeuvring on the collision scenario are studied. Based on limited available literature on the topic, a preliminary model for evasive manoeuvring principles is developed. The obtained results between scenarios including and excluding the effects of evasive manoeuvring are compared. The Monte Carlo simulation method is utilized to simulate a large number of collision scenarios that depend on the encountering angles. The distributions obtained from AIS data for waterway specific traffic patterns and ship type dependant vessel particulars along with the effects of evasive manoeuvrings are used in the simulation. The deformation energy in each collision scenario will be calculated by applying a method proposed by Zhang in his Ph. D. thesis. The variables needed to apply Zhang's method will be obtained from the Monte Carlo simulation. The possibility of oil cargo tank rupture in collision is considered if the struck ship is a tanker. Finally, the model is applied to estimate deformation energy in ship - ship collisions in the Gulf of Finland. The estimated deformation energy will be used in the collision damage extent calculations. With the model fairway specific ship - ship collision risk profile can be found.Description
Supervisor
Kujala, PenttiThesis advisor
Montewka, JakubKeywords
ship collisions, laivojen yhteentörmäys, deformation energy, muodonmuutosenergia, evasive maneuvering, väistöliikkeet