Analysis of the Hot Hand Phenomenon: Examining Its Influence on Decision Making and Probabilistic Errors in Basketball

Abstract

This thesis analyses the concepts of hot hand and hot hand bias. I observe these concepts in basketball context. The thesis is a literature review, in which I analyse these concepts based on previous research. In the past hot hand in basketball was thought of being a myth. In the thesis I present newer papers that have been able to find a hot hand effect in different basketball scenarios. Research in this field shows that the closer a situation resembles a controlled setting, the stronger hot hand effect is often found. Based on the found hot hand effect, and in some cases lack of one, I then analyse the possibility of judgement bias and irrational decision-making, which is caused by the hot hand bias. In run of play basketball there are situations in which the hot hand bias likely exists for both the defending and the attacking sides.