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Do Finnish pension funds deliver abnormal returns? Evidence from constrained returns-based style analysis, 2009-2024
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School of Business |
Bachelor's thesis
Authors
Heikkinen, Saul
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Degree programme
Language
en
Pages
20+10
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Abstract
This thesis examines whether Finland’s five major occupational pension funds—Elo, Ilmarinen, Varma, Veritas, and Keva—generate active returns beyond asset allocation. Using constrained returns-based style analysis on quarterly net-of-fee data from 2009–2024, I find alphas indistinguishable from zero or negative (-0.8% to -2.0% annualized), with multi-asset controls rendering positives from simple benchmarks (CAPM and balanced portfolios) to strategic asset allocation rather than selection/timing skill. This extends Sharpe's (1992) RBSA to Finland's regulated context, revealing that 2017 solvency reforms enabled higher risk without commensurate skill. Performance stems from allocation to high-premium assets like private equity, consistent with efficient markets. This allocation adds 1.6-4.1% annualized excess returns over passive equity strategy, demonstrating value in diversification, though high premium asset classes. Findings imply a need for fee scrutiny and governance reforms to justify costs given the lack of selection/timing skill, advocating efficiency enhancements for retiree outcomes where passive approaches are feasible.