On the use of expert judgement in the qualification of risk assessment

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Doctoral thesis (article-based)
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Date
2003-12-11
Major/Subject
Riskianalyysi
Mcode
Degree programme
Language
en
Pages
48, [82]
Series
VTT publications, 507
Abstract
The increased use of risk assesment in governmental and corporate decision-making has increased the role of expert judgement in providing information for safety related decision-making. Expert judgements are required in most steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, risk estimation, risk evaluation and analysis of options. The use and elicitation of expert judgement is therefore subject to on-going research. Furthermore, expert judgement is also required in the quality assurance or quality verification of risk assessment. The research presented in the thesis addresses qualitative and probabilistic methods supporting the use of expert judgement in specific decision contexts; introduces a conceptual and procedural framework for quality verification of risk assessment; and presents techniques for the aggregation of probability distributions specified by experts' percentile information. The methodological view to risk assessment adopted in the thesis is requisite modelling, where a decision and risk model is developed for a certain decision context to support decision-making under uncertainty, and refined until the decision-maker has confidence in the results and prescriptions obtained from the model. The decision and risk modelling approaches presented in the thesis are related to specific decision contexts in maritime safety, maintenance management, and software reliability. The modelling approaches presented can, however, be utilised for risk-informed decision-making in other application areas as well.
Description
Väitöskirjan tavoitteena on kehittää riskianalyysiä menetelmänä siten, että asiantuntija-arvioiden rooli täsmentyy ja laajenee sekä riskianalyysin laatu paranee. Väitöskirjan erityisenä kimmokkeena on ollut riskianalyysien lisääntynyt tarve merenkulun turvallisuuden kehittämisessä Suomen meriliikenteessä ja sen soveltamisessa havaitut menetelmälliset puutteet. Tutkimuksessa on kehitetty riskianalyysiin liittyvien epävarmuuksien määrittelyjä sekä niiden systemaattista arviointia. Tutkimuksessa on myös kehitetty riskianalyysin tulosten tulkinta- ja laadun arviointitapoja. Teknisemmät tutkimustulokset liittyvät kvantitatiivisten asiantuntija-arvioiden matemaattiseen yhdistämiseen. Väitöskirjan tutkimustuloksilla on merkitystä riskitietoisessa päätöksenteossa yleensä, vaikka menetelmäkehitys on demonstroitu merenkulun turvallisuuden, teknisen järjestelmän kunnonvalvonnan ja ohjelmistoluotettavuuden sovellusalueilla. Riskitietoisen päätöksenteon tarve näyttää lisääntyvän niin yritysmaailmassa kuin julkisella sektorilla.
Supervising professor
Hämäläinen, Raimo P.; Prof.
Thesis advisor
Pulkkinen, Urho; Prof.
Keywords
risk assessment, quality of risk assessment, qualification of risk assessment, expert judgement, expert model, probabilistic safety assessment, formal safety assessment, risk modelling
Other note
Parts
  • Rosqvist, T., Tuominen, R. 2004. Qualification of Formal Safety Assessment - An Exploratory Study. Safety Science, 42(2), 99-120.
  • Rosqvist, T., Nyman, T., Sonninen, S., Tuominen, R. 2002. The implementation of the VTMIS system for the gulf of Finland - a FSA study. Proceedings of the RINA International Conference on Formal Safety Assessment, 18-19 Sept 2002. London.
  • Rosqvist, T. 2002. Stopping time optimisation in condition monitoring. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 76(3), 319-325.
  • Rosqvist, T. 2000. Bayesian aggregation of experts' judgements on failure intensity. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 70(3), 283-289.
  • Rosqvist, T. 2004. Stakeholder compensation model based on decision analysis. Journal of Multi-criteria Decision Analysis - Special Issue: Towards electronic democracy (in press).
  • Rosqvist, T., Koskela, M., Harju, H. 2003. Software quality evaluation based on expert judgement. Software Quality Journal, 11(1), 39-55.
Citation
Permanent link to this item
https://urn.fi/urn:nbn:fi:tkk-001139