Scenario-based modelling and analysis of the Tampere tramline extension

Abstract

The extension of the Tampere tramway to Lentävänniemi is projected to be completed by early 2025. This study presents a model and analysis to assist the municipality of Tampere in its decision-making. The primary objectives are to forecast passenger demand upon the tramway's completion, compare various tramline alternatives, and determine the required number of trams for efficient operation.

The demand is predicted using a Direct Demand Model (DDM), and six operational scenarios are evaluated using standardized formulas. The model predicts approximately 82,716 daily boardings once the extension opens. Among the network alternatives, the routes from Hervanta to Lentävänniemi and TAYS-Sorin aukio are the most suitable. The study concludes that the current tram fleet is adequate for the projected operational needs. Since the model variables are estimated by masterplan and building permits, the downturn of the construction sector in Finland significantly impacts the reliability of the demand predictions. Assumptions made due to data availability also reduce the reliability of the results.