Foresight systems and land use planning

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Volume Title

Insinööritieteiden korkeakoulu | Master's thesis

Date

2023-08-21

Department

Major/Subject

Mcode

Degree programme

Master's Programme in Spatial Planning and Transportation Engineering (SPT)

Language

en

Pages

47

Series

Abstract

The initial motivation for investigating foresight systems in a land use planning context was to inform and support the Ministry of Environment in establishing its Development Picture work as a foresight system. Although the more detailed work of developing specific recommendations is left to future scholars, this master's thesis has bridged a fundamental research gap in foresight systems theory by systematically knitting together a disconnected concept of a foresight system. The first main finding was identifying the knowledge gaps: First, there is no broadly-based unifying concept of a foresight system. Second, although there are some tools for analyzing and improving foresight systems, these are not broadly based. Third, there is no discussion of foresight systems in land use planning or built environment contexts. By conducting a systematic search of foresight systems literature and systematically analyzing the literature, this master's thesis synthesized the unifying characteristics of foresight systems. This brought together findings from case studies and theoretical studies from multiple geographies and foresight domains. The finding is that a foresight system exists with purpose; the description of the system reflects its actors' perspectives; and it is a complex adaptive system. By comparing this description to the Development Picture case study, this thesis identified opportunities for improving the Development Picture as a foresight system. The final finding is that the Development Picture work, as described in its publications, is systematic and operates as a self-aware part of a system in addressing most of its immediate and intermediate goals. However, in addressing its most ambitious and long-term goals, there are opportunities to focus more on changes to the operational environment and coordination with other non-planning foresight work.

Description

Supervisor

Mäntysalo, Raine

Thesis advisor

Airikkala, Mikko

Keywords

foresight, foresight systems, land use planning, Finland

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