Timing the first emergence and disappearance of global water scarcity

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dc.contributorAalto-yliopistofi
dc.contributorAalto Universityen
dc.contributor.authorLiu, Junguoen_US
dc.contributor.authorLi, Delongen_US
dc.contributor.authorChen, Heen_US
dc.contributor.authorWang, Hongen_US
dc.contributor.authorWada, Yoshihideen_US
dc.contributor.authorKummu, Mattien_US
dc.contributor.authorGosling, Simon Newlanden_US
dc.contributor.authorYang, Hongen_US
dc.contributor.authorPokhrel, Yaduen_US
dc.contributor.authorCiais, Philippeen_US
dc.contributor.departmentDepartment of Built Environmenten
dc.contributor.groupauthorWater and Environmental Eng.en
dc.contributor.organizationNorth China University of Water Resources and Electric Poweren_US
dc.contributor.organizationSouthern University of Science and Technologyen_US
dc.contributor.organizationKing Abdullah University of Science and Technologyen_US
dc.contributor.organizationUniversity of Nottinghamen_US
dc.contributor.organization2W2W Consulting, GmbHen_US
dc.contributor.organizationMichigan State Universityen_US
dc.contributor.organizationLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnementen_US
dc.date.accessioned2024-09-04T06:31:55Z
dc.date.available2024-09-04T06:31:55Z
dc.date.issued2024-12en_US
dc.descriptionPublisher Copyright: © The Author(s) 2024. | openaire: EC/H2020/819202/EU//SOS.aquaterra
dc.description.abstractAlleviating water scarcity is at the core of Sustainable Development Goal 6. Yet the timing of water scarcity in its onset and possible relief in different regions of the world due to climate change and changing human population dynamics remains poorly investigated. Here we assess the timing of the first emergence of water scarcity (FirstWS) and disappearance of water scarcity (EndWS), by using ensembles of simulations with six Global Hydrological Models under two representative concentration pathways (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP6.0) combined with two shared socioeconomic pathways (i.e., SSP2, SSP3) for 1901–2090. Historically (1901–2020), FirstWS occurred predominantly in Asia (e.g., China and India) and Africa (e.g., East Africa); the peak time of emerging water scarcity began around the 1980s. Under all the four future RCPs-SSPs scenarios (2021–2090), FirstWS will likely occur mainly in some regions of Africa, for which the newly added area is double that in Asia. On the other hand, EndWS will mostly occur in China after 2050, primarily due to the projected declining population. We, therefore, call for specific attention and effort to adapt to the looming water scarcity in Africa.en
dc.description.versionPeer revieweden
dc.format.extent11
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen_US
dc.identifier.citationLiu, J, Li, D, Chen, H, Wang, H, Wada, Y, Kummu, M, Gosling, S N, Yang, H, Pokhrel, Y & Ciais, P 2024, ' Timing the first emergence and disappearance of global water scarcity ', Nature Communications, vol. 15, no. 1, 7129 . https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-51302-zen
dc.identifier.doi10.1038/s41467-024-51302-zen_US
dc.identifier.issn2041-1723
dc.identifier.otherPURE UUID: 6272e880-727f-47a2-af2e-f27dd48dacbfen_US
dc.identifier.otherPURE ITEMURL: https://research.aalto.fi/en/publications/6272e880-727f-47a2-af2e-f27dd48dacbfen_US
dc.identifier.otherPURE LINK: http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85201639408&partnerID=8YFLogxKen_US
dc.identifier.otherPURE FILEURL: https://research.aalto.fi/files/156118817/s41467-024-51302-z.pdfen_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://aaltodoc.aalto.fi/handle/123456789/130611
dc.identifier.urnURN:NBN:fi:aalto-202409046173
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherNature Portfolio
dc.relationinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/819202/EU//SOS.aquaterraen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesNature Communications
dc.relation.ispartofseriesVolume 15, issue 1
dc.rightsopenAccessen
dc.titleTiming the first emergence and disappearance of global water scarcityen
dc.typeA1 Alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessäfi
dc.type.versionpublishedVersion
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