Agricultural input shocks affect crop yields more in the high-yielding areas of the world

No Thumbnail Available
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
A1 Alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessä
Date
2023-12
Major/Subject
Mcode
Degree programme
Language
en
Pages
23
Series
Nature food
Abstract
The industrialization of agriculture has led to an increasing dependence on non-locally sourced agricultural inputs. Hence, shocks in the availability of agricultural inputs can be devastating to food crop production. There is also a pressure to decrease the use of synthetic fertilizers and pesticides in many areas. However, the combined impact of the agricultural input shocks on crop yields has not yet been systematically assessed globally. Here we modelled the effects of agricultural input shocks using a random forest machine learning algorithm. We show that shocks in fertilizers cause the most drastic yield losses. Under the scenario of 50% shock in all studied agricultural inputs, global maize production could decrease up to 26%, and global wheat production up to 21%, impacting particularly the high-yielding ‘breadbasket’ areas of the world. Our study provides insights into global food system resilience and can be useful for preparing for potential future shocks or agricultural input availability decreases at local and global scales.
Description
| openaire: EC/H2020/819202/EU//SOS.aquaterra
Keywords
Other note
Citation
Ahvo , A , Heino , M , Sandström , V , Chrisendo , D , Jalava , M & Kummu , M 2023 , ' Agricultural input shocks affect crop yields more in the high-yielding areas of the world ' , Nature food , vol. 4 , no. 12 , pp. 1037-1046 . https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-023-00873-z