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Future projections of flood dynamics in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta

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dc.contributor Aalto-yliopisto fi
dc.contributor Aalto University en
dc.contributor.author Nguyen, Van Khanh Triet
dc.contributor.author Dung, Nguyen Viet
dc.contributor.author Hoang, Long Phi
dc.contributor.author Duy, Nguyen Le
dc.contributor.author Tran, Dung Duc
dc.contributor.author Anh, Tran Tuan
dc.contributor.author Kummu, Matti
dc.contributor.author Merz, Bruno
dc.contributor.author Apel, Heiko
dc.date.accessioned 2020-08-12T09:13:00Z
dc.date.available 2020-08-12T09:13:00Z
dc.date.issued 2020-11-10
dc.identifier.citation Nguyen , V K T , Dung , N V , Hoang , L P , Duy , N L , Tran , D D , Anh , T T , Kummu , M , Merz , B & Apel , H 2020 , ' Future projections of flood dynamics in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta ' , Science of the Total Environment , vol. 742 , 140596 . https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140596 en
dc.identifier.issn 0048-9697
dc.identifier.issn 1879-1026
dc.identifier.other PURE UUID: a55268ba-57ac-4c7c-9e4c-46f9200349d7
dc.identifier.other PURE ITEMURL: https://research.aalto.fi/en/publications/a55268ba-57ac-4c7c-9e4c-46f9200349d7
dc.identifier.other PURE LINK: http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85087497778&partnerID=8YFLogxK
dc.identifier.other PURE FILEURL: https://research.aalto.fi/files/55496508/ENG_Triet_et_al_Future_projections_of_flood_dynamics_Science_of_the_Total_Environment.pdf
dc.identifier.uri https://aaltodoc.aalto.fi/handle/123456789/45692
dc.description | openaire: EC/H2020/819202/EU//SOS.aquaterra
dc.description.abstract The annual flood pulse of the Mekong River is crucial to sustain agriculture production, nutrition, and the livelihood of millions of people living in the Vietnamese part of the Mekong Delta (VMD). However, climate change impacts on precipitation, temperature and sea-level combined with land subsidence, upstream hydropower development, and water infrastructures (i.e. high-dykes construction) are altering the hydrological regime of the VMD. This study investigates future changes in flood hazard and agricultural production caused by these different scales of human-induced stresses. A quasi- two-dimensional (quasi-2D) hydrodynamic model was used to simulate eight scenarios representing the individual and compound impacts of these drivers for a baseline (1971-2000) and future (2036-2065) period. The scenarios map the most likely future pathway of climate change (RCP 4.5) combined with the best available Mekong upstream hydropower development, and land subsidence scenarios as well as the current delta development plan. We found that sea-level rise and land subsidence would cause the highest changes in flood hazard and damage to rice crop, followed by hydropower and climate change impacts. Expansion of high-dyke areas in two northernmost delta provinces (An Giang and Dong Thap) would have the smallest impact. The combination of all modelled drivers is projected to increase delta inundation extent by 20%, accompanied with prolonging submergence of 1-2 months, and 2-3 times increase in annual flood damage to rice crops in the flood-prone areas of the VMD. These findings of likely increasing risk of tidal induced flood hazard and damage call for well-planned adaptation and mitigation measures, both structural and non-structural. (C) 2020 Published by Elsevier B.V. en
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
dc.language.iso en en
dc.publisher Elsevier Science B.V.
dc.relation info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/819202/EU//SOS.aquaterra
dc.relation.ispartofseries Science of the Total Environment en
dc.relation.ispartofseries Volume 742 en
dc.rights openAccess en
dc.title Future projections of flood dynamics in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta en
dc.type A1 Alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessä fi
dc.description.version Peer reviewed en
dc.contributor.department Helmholtz Centre Potsdam - German Research Centre for Geosciences
dc.contributor.department Wageningen University and Research
dc.contributor.department Vietnam National University Ho Chi Minh City
dc.contributor.department Water and Environmental Engineering
dc.contributor.department Department of Built Environment en
dc.subject.keyword Climate change
dc.subject.keyword Hydrodynamic modelling
dc.subject.keyword Hydropower
dc.subject.keyword Land subsidence
dc.subject.keyword Sea-level rise
dc.identifier.urn URN:NBN:fi:aalto-202008124706
dc.identifier.doi 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140596
dc.date.embargo info:eu-repo/date/embargoEnd/2022-07-08

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