Logistics 2050 - A design-driven foresight study

Abstract

The logistics sector is one of the fastest developing industries, being highly influenced by globalization and digitalization. The industry is connected to the development and innovation in other sectors and therefore ever changing. Due to current trends in consumer behavior and globalization, goods need to be transported to all corners of the world using multiple transportation modes. Factors such as the rise of e-commerce enhanced international trade through the accessibility of goods instantly and globally. This has a direct influence on the amount of cargo being shifted internationally. This development challenges the logistics industry on multiple levels due to authorial regulations, customer and stakeholder demands as well as emerging sustainability requirements.

This master thesis was created in cooperation with the Finnish logistics company Vedia. The main objective of this master thesis is to research, document and analyze current trends such as multimodality, international trade, international collaboration and the utilization of innovative technologies in the industry and create a future outlook which provides guidelines and action plans on how to attain future goals for Vedia in cooperation with authorities (for example customs or road traffic authorities), suppliers (for example logistics service providers and port or airport facilitators) and other partners. The future outlook can help Vedia as well as all other stakeholders of the logistics supply chain to strategically plan their business activities, research and invest into upcoming trends and prevent future obstacles.

The goal of this thesis is to develop a future outlook which will be created using design methods while at the same time focusing on the business perspective and the possibilities of market shaping for Vedia. This thesis was created by implementing design tools and methods, such as user-centered design, co-creation and design thinking. Within three design studio workshops, the participants were providing a major building block to the foresight study. This thesis challenges the present understanding of the scope of design, since it combines the service and product design term as we know it with business related aspects of market analysis.

The thesis is based on 5 case studies, each covering a member state of the European Union: Finland, Germany, Spain, Sweden and the Netherlands. These cases analyze developments in the national logistics industry, as well as the possibilities and challenges for new business models and market disruption in these selected countries were measured. The country cases are supported by qualitative research such as document analysis of academic and governmental papers as well as over 40 interviews with industry experts, providing their assessment on the development of the industry.

The insights gained in the earlier chapters are collected in order to be shaped into a future outlook. The outlook focuses on three main technologies which were identified to mainly influence the industry in the future: internet of things, cloud computing as well as data sharing and analysis. These technologies can help shift the supply chain towards flexibility, safety and sustainability. Moreover, two scenarios were created which cover two of the discovered obstacles in the industry: Last-mile delivery in urban areas as well as the multimodal supply chain. These findings direct into the necessity for logistics companies, as well as authorities and other partners to invest into innovative technologies and smart systems as well as the necessity of collaborating closely together in order to stay competitive compared to global players on the market. Moreover, this thesis illustrates the importance of environmental and social sustainability today and in the future and its strong influence on the industry.