Analyzing the effects of uncertainties on the modelling of low-carbon energy system pathways

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dc.contributor Aalto-yliopisto fi
dc.contributor Aalto University en Pilpola, Sannamari Lund, Peter 2020-04-28T06:56:09Z 2020-04-28T06:56:09Z 2020
dc.identifier.citation Pilpola , S & Lund , P 2020 , ' Analyzing the effects of uncertainties on the modelling of low-carbon energy system pathways ' , Energy, The International Journal , vol. 201 , 117652 . en
dc.identifier.issn 0360-5442
dc.identifier.issn 1873-6785
dc.identifier.other PURE UUID: a09ecf56-b911-4516-a67c-7f04b85952f8
dc.identifier.other PURE ITEMURL:
dc.identifier.other PURE FILEURL:
dc.description.abstract Decarbonization is an important goal of the future energy transition, but its modelling is also subject to several uncertainties. Here we investigate the impacts of such uncertainties through analyzing the overall performance and operation of a modelled national energy system undergoing deep decarbonization. Finland was chosen as a case, as it intends to become carbon-neutral already by 2035. Uncertainties in costs, energy consumption, and renewable resource potential and how they affect the operation of a modelled energy system is analyzed using a Monte Carlo method linked to a national energy system model with hourly resolution. The importance of the different uncertainties for the overall system indicators such as annual cost, CO2 emissions, and reliability are assessed. The impacts on different modelled low-carbon pathways are compared. For the Finnish case study, the projected energy consumption seems to be the most important uncertainty factor for the future energy system scenarios (e.g. for the CO2 emissions), followed by the production of wind power and the potential of biomass. The results indicate that addressing input uncertainties will be highly relevant for energy system modelling when pursuing decarbonization. None of the modelled cost-optimal decarbonization pathways stands out as fully resilient in this respect. en
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
dc.language.iso en en
dc.relation.ispartofseries Energy, The International Journal en
dc.rights openAccess en
dc.subject.other 218 Environmental engineering en
dc.subject.other renewable energy en
dc.title Analyzing the effects of uncertainties on the modelling of low-carbon energy system pathways en
dc.type A1 Alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessä fi
dc.description.version Peer reviewed en
dc.contributor.department New Energy Technologies
dc.contributor.department Department of Applied Physics en
dc.subject.keyword Energy system modelling
dc.subject.keyword Finland
dc.subject.keyword Monte Carlo uncertainty
dc.subject.keyword Scenarios
dc.subject.keyword Uncertainty
dc.subject.keyword 218 Environmental engineering
dc.subject.keyword renewable energy
dc.identifier.urn URN:NBN:fi:aalto-202004282895
dc.identifier.doi 10.1016/
dc.type.version acceptedVersion

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