What to Do When Decision-Makers Deviate from Model Recommendations?

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dc.contributor Aalto-yliopisto fi
dc.contributor Aalto University en
dc.contributor.author Käki, Anssi
dc.contributor.author Kemppainen, Katariina
dc.contributor.author Liesiö, Juuso
dc.date.accessioned 2019-06-03T14:19:02Z
dc.date.available 2019-06-03T14:19:02Z
dc.date.issued 2019-11-01
dc.identifier.citation Käki , A , Kemppainen , K & Liesiö , J 2019 , ' What to Do When Decision-Makers Deviate from Model Recommendations? Empirical Evidence from Hydropower Industry ' European Journal of Operational Research . https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2019.04.021 en
dc.identifier.issn 0377-2217
dc.identifier.other PURE UUID: d539f6c1-a2ad-46fe-9d9e-89cffc8d4b4f
dc.identifier.other PURE ITEMURL: https://research.aalto.fi/en/publications/what-to-do-when-decisionmakers-deviate-from-model-recommendations(d539f6c1-a2ad-46fe-9d9e-89cffc8d4b4f).html
dc.identifier.other PURE LINK: http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85065427461&partnerID=8YFLogxK
dc.identifier.other PURE LINK: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377221719303418
dc.identifier.other PURE FILEURL: https://research.aalto.fi/files/33614552/biz2.pdf
dc.identifier.uri https://aaltodoc.aalto.fi/handle/123456789/38383
dc.description.abstract Decision makers do not always follow recommendations from model-based decision support systems. We suggest that analyzing the differences between decision recommendations produced by prescriptive models and the behavior of the decision makers provides valuable insights that can be utilized to improve model-based decision support processes. Specifically, we develop an intervention process in the context of hydropower production planning to study the motivations of decision makers and the ramifications of their behavior. The analysis is based on deviations between recommendations of an in-house optimization tool and actual decisions, enhanced by planner feedback collected from a daily web-survey. We find that even though the planners make some adjustments with positive financial impact, their actions mainly worsen the performance of the production plan. Using the collected data, we identify several reasons for the deviations and recommend multiple enhancements to the planning process. For example, we propose a shift from output-adjusting to input-adjusting interaction between human planner and model. Altogether our facilitated modeling project shows that combining objective and judgmental process feedback is superior for recognizing corrective actions and systematically improving model-driven decision processes. Furthermore, the intervention process developed for this case gives structure for the lifecycle management of model-based decision support systems. en
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
dc.language.iso en en
dc.publisher Elsevier Science B.V.
dc.relation.ispartofseries European Journal of Operational Research en
dc.rights openAccess en
dc.subject.other 512 Business and management en
dc.title What to Do When Decision-Makers Deviate from Model Recommendations? en
dc.type A1 Alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessä fi
dc.description.version Peer reviewed en
dc.contributor.department UPM Kymmene
dc.contributor.department Department of Information and Service Management
dc.subject.keyword Decision Support Systems
dc.subject.keyword OR practice
dc.subject.keyword Empirical Research
dc.subject.keyword Energy-related Operations
dc.subject.keyword 512 Business and management
dc.identifier.urn URN:NBN:fi:aalto-201906033468
dc.identifier.doi 10.1016/j.ejor.2019.04.021
dc.type.version acceptedVersion

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