Review of modelling energy transitions pathways with application to energy system flexibility

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dc.contributor Aalto-yliopisto fi
dc.contributor Aalto University en Bolwig, Simon Bazbauers, Gatis Klitkou, Antje Lund, Peter D. Blumberga, Andra Gravelsins, Armands Blumberga, Dagnija 2019-01-14T09:20:29Z 2019-01-14T09:20:29Z 2019-03-01
dc.identifier.citation Bolwig , S , Bazbauers , G , Klitkou , A , Lund , P D , Blumberga , A , Gravelsins , A & Blumberga , D 2019 , ' Review of modelling energy transitions pathways with application to energy system flexibility ' Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews , vol. 101 , pp. 440-452 . DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2018.11.019 en
dc.identifier.issn 1364-0321
dc.identifier.issn 1879-0690
dc.identifier.other PURE UUID: 3da907fc-db39-439d-9a6c-c4c24bc6afc5
dc.identifier.other PURE ITEMURL:
dc.identifier.other PURE LINK:
dc.description.abstract The aim of this review is to discuss how quantitative modelling of energy scenarios for sustainable energy transition pathways can be made more realistic by taking into account insights from the socio-technical and related literatures. The proposition is that an enriched modelling approach would focus not just on technology development and deployment, but also on feedback loops, learning processes, policy and governance, behavioural changes, the interlinkages between the energy sector and other economic sectors, and infrastructure development. The review discusses a range of socio-technical concepts with a view to how they can enrich the understanding and modelling of highly complex dynamic systems such as flexible energy systems with high shares of variable renewable energy. In this context, application of system dynamics modelling (SDM) for the analysis of energy transitions is also introduced by describing the differences between SDM and a traditional modelling approach that uses econometric and linear programming methods. A conceptual framework for this type of modelling is provided by using causal loop diagrams. The diagrams illustrate the endogenous approach of SDM – understanding and modelling the structure of a system, which is responsible for its dynamic behaviour. SDM can also capture the co-evolution of economic, policy, technology, and behavioural factors over sufficiently long time periods, which is necessary for the analysis of transition pathway dynamics. In this regard, the review summarises how socio-technical concepts can be approached in SDM and why they are relevant for the analysis of flexibility in energy systems. From a computational point of view, it could be beneficial to combine SDM with technologically detailed energy system optimization models and that could be a way forward for achieving more realistic, non-linear quantitative modelling of sustainable energy transitions. en
dc.format.extent 13
dc.format.extent 440-452
dc.language.iso en en
dc.relation.ispartofseries Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews en
dc.relation.ispartofseries Volume 101 en
dc.rights embargoedAccess en
dc.subject.other Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment en
dc.subject.other 218 Environmental engineering en
dc.title Review of modelling energy transitions pathways with application to energy system flexibility en
dc.type A2 Katsausartikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessä fi
dc.description.version Peer reviewed en
dc.contributor.department Danmarks Tekniske Universitet
dc.contributor.department Riga Technical University
dc.contributor.department Nordic Institute for Studies in Innovation, Research and Education
dc.contributor.department New Energy Technologies
dc.contributor.department Department of Applied Physics en
dc.subject.keyword Energy system flexibility
dc.subject.keyword Energy system modelling
dc.subject.keyword Socio-technical factors
dc.subject.keyword Sustainable energy systems
dc.subject.keyword System dynamics modelling
dc.subject.keyword Transitions pathways
dc.subject.keyword Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
dc.subject.keyword 218 Environmental engineering
dc.identifier.urn URN:NBN:fi:aalto-201901141123
dc.identifier.doi 10.1016/j.rser.2018.11.019 info:eu-repo/date/embargoEnd/2021-03-01

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