Computationally efficient Bayesian learning of Gaussian process state space models

Abstract

Gaussian processes allow for flexible specification of prior assumptions of unknown dynamics in state space models. We present a procedure for efficient Bayesian learning in Gaussian process state space models, where the representation is formed by projecting the problem onto a set of approximate eigenfunctions derived from the prior covariance structure. Learning under this family of models can be conducted using a carefully crafted particle MCMC algorithm. This scheme is computationally efficient and yet allows for a fully Bayesian treatment of the problem. Compared to conventional system identification tools or existing learning methods, we show competitive performance and reliable quantification of uncertainties in the model.