Transition to carbon neutral energy systems – implications to district heating in cities

Abstract

In this paper, the results from EU level energy system modelling with TIMES PanEU are interpreted to the city level development of the district heating (DH) systems of Warsaw and Helsinki region until 2050. In the future, there is probably more variation in the electricity prices due to the higher share of renewable energy sources in the electricity production which further affects the operation of DH systems. The results presented in this paper indicate that heat storages were almost always profitable investments and the optimal heat storage capacity was highest in 2050. The benefit of the heat storage increased with the variation in electricity prices. In Warsaw, heat pumps were also profitable. Heat production with wood and waste fuels as well as utilization of geothermal and waste heat increased in Helsinki region by 2050. In Warsaw, the consumption of biomass, waste and electricity in heat production increased by 2050.