Analysis of Long-Range Dependence and Commodity Carry Trade

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School of Business | Bachelor's thesis
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Date
2018
Major/Subject
Mcode
Degree programme
Rahoitus
Language
en
Pages
18+1
Series
Abstract
This paper examines the long-range characteristics of commodity spot returns and the subsequent implications on commodity carry returns. By measuring the long-range dependence of commodity spot returns with the Hurst Exponent estimated through rescaled range analysis, I am able to determine an inverse relationship between long-range dependence and commodity carry returns. According to the results, highest carry returns occur during such times when the time-series exhibits no long-range dependence. Furthermore, additional tests reveal that carry returns are strongest during times of a mean-reverting behavior of spot returns which is intuitional given the risk-characteristics of carry strategies and the existence of momentum crashes.
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Thesis advisor
JylhƤ, Petri
Keywords
Hurst exponent, carry, commodities, long-range dependence, long memory, commodity carry
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