Analysis of Long-Range Dependence and Commodity Carry Trade

Abstract

This paper examines the long-range characteristics of commodity spot returns and the subsequent implications on commodity carry returns. By measuring the long-range dependence of commodity spot returns with the Hurst Exponent estimated through rescaled range analysis, I am able to determine an inverse relationship between long-range dependence and commodity carry returns. According to the results, highest carry returns occur during such times when the time-series exhibits no long-range dependence. Furthermore, additional tests reveal that carry returns are strongest during times of a mean-reverting behavior of spot returns which is intuitional given the risk-characteristics of carry strategies and the existence of momentum crashes.