Predictability of twentieth century sea-level rise from past data

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dc.contributor Aalto-yliopisto fi
dc.contributor Aalto University en
dc.contributor.author Bitterman, Klaus
dc.contributor.author Rahmstorf, Stefan
dc.contributor.author Perrette, Mahé
dc.contributor.author Vermeer, Martin
dc.date.accessioned 2017-11-21T13:34:53Z
dc.date.available 2017-11-21T13:34:53Z
dc.date.issued 2013
dc.identifier.citation Bitterman , K , Rahmstorf , S , Perrette , M & Vermeer , M 2013 , ' Predictability of twentieth century sea-level rise from past data ' Environmental Research Letters , vol. 8 , no. 1 , 014013 , pp. 1-8 . https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014013 en
dc.identifier.issn 1748-9326
dc.identifier.other PURE UUID: 1f10de30-bcc8-416c-ab90-db8ed8e80f5a
dc.identifier.other PURE ITEMURL: https://research.aalto.fi/en/publications/predictability-of-twentieth-century-sealevel-rise-from-past-data(1f10de30-bcc8-416c-ab90-db8ed8e80f5a).html
dc.identifier.other PURE LINK: http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/1/014013/pdf/1748-9326_8_1_014013.pdf
dc.identifier.other PURE FILEURL: https://research.aalto.fi/files/15848380/Bittermann_2013_Environ._Res._Lett._8_014013_1.pdf
dc.identifier.uri https://aaltodoc.aalto.fi/handle/123456789/28764
dc.description.abstract The prediction of global sea-level rise is one of the major challenges of climate science. While process-based models are still being improved to capture the complexity of the processes involved, semi-empirical models, exploiting the observed connection between global-mean sea level and global temperature and calibrated with data, have been developed as a complementary approach. Here we investigate whether twentieth century sea-level rise could have been predicted with such models given a knowledge of twentieth century global temperature increase. We find that either proxy or early tide gauge data do not hold enough information to constrain the model parameters well. However, in combination, the use of proxy and tide gauge sea-level data up to 1900 AD allows a good prediction of twentieth century sea-level rise, despite this rise being well outside the rates experienced in previous centuries during the calibration period of the model. The 90% confidence range for the linear twentieth century rise predicted bythe semi-empirical model is 13–30 cm, whereas the observed interval (using two tide gauge data sets) is 14–26 cm. en
dc.format.extent 1-8
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
dc.language.iso en en
dc.relation.ispartofseries ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS en
dc.relation.ispartofseries Volume 8, issue 1 en
dc.rights openAccess en
dc.subject.other 212 Civil and construction engineering en
dc.subject.other 222 Other engineering and technologies en
dc.subject.other 513 Law en
dc.subject.other 520 Other social sciences en
dc.subject.other 113 Computer and information sciences en
dc.subject.other 1171 Geosciences en
dc.title Predictability of twentieth century sea-level rise from past data en
dc.type A1 Alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessä fi
dc.description.version Peer reviewed en
dc.contributor.department Department of Real Estate, Planning and Geoinformatics en
dc.contributor.department Department of Built Environment en
dc.subject.keyword climate change
dc.subject.keyword model validation
dc.subject.keyword projections
dc.subject.keyword sea-level rise
dc.subject.keyword 212 Civil and construction engineering
dc.subject.keyword 222 Other engineering and technologies
dc.subject.keyword 513 Law
dc.subject.keyword 520 Other social sciences
dc.subject.keyword 113 Computer and information sciences
dc.subject.keyword 1171 Geosciences
dc.identifier.urn URN:NBN:fi:aalto-201711217585
dc.identifier.doi 10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014013
dc.type.version publishedVersion


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