The use of food imports to overcome local limits to growth

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dc.contributor Aalto-yliopisto fi
dc.contributor Aalto University en Porkka, Miina Guillaume, Joseph H.A. Siebert, Stefan Schaphoff, Sibyll Kummu, Matti 2017-10-15T20:57:05Z 2017-10-15T20:57:05Z 2017-04-01
dc.identifier.citation Porkka , M , Guillaume , J H A , Siebert , S , Schaphoff , S & Kummu , M 2017 , ' The use of food imports to overcome local limits to growth ' Earth's Future , vol 5 , no. 4 , pp. 393-407 . DOI: 10.1002/2016EF000477 en
dc.identifier.issn 2328-4277
dc.identifier.other PURE UUID: e7c45aed-1e1d-49db-8ce9-45ba2868e972
dc.identifier.other PURE ITEMURL:
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dc.description.abstract There is a fundamental tension between population growth and carrying capacity, i.e., the population that could potentially be supported using the resources and technologies available at a given time. When population growth outpaces improvements in food production locally, food imports can avoid local limits and allow growth to continue. This import strategy is central to the debate on food security with continuing rapid growth of the world population. This highlights the importance of a quantitative global understanding of where the strategy is implemented, whether it has been successful, and what drivers are involved. We present an integrated quantitative analysis to answer these questions at sub-national and national scale for 1961–2009, focusing on water as the key limiting resource and accounting for resource and technology impacts on local carrying capacity. According to the sub-national estimates, food imports have nearly universally been used to overcome local limits to growth, affecting 3.0 billion people—81% of the population that is approaching or already exceeded local carrying capacity. This strategy is successful in 88% of the cases, being highly dependent on economic purchasing power. In the unsuccessful cases, increases in imports and local productivity have not kept pace with population growth, leaving 460 million people with insufficient food. Where the strategy has been successful, food security of 1.4 billion people has become dependent on imports. Whether or not this dependence on imports is considered desirable, it has policy implications that need to be taken into account. en
dc.format.extent 15
dc.format.extent 393-407
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
dc.language.iso en en
dc.relation.ispartofseries Earth's Future en
dc.relation.ispartofseries Volume 5, issue 4 en
dc.rights openAccess en
dc.subject.other Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous) en
dc.subject.other Environmental Science(all) en
dc.subject.other 1171 Geosciences en
dc.subject.other 218 Environmental engineering en
dc.title The use of food imports to overcome local limits to growth en
dc.type A1 Alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessä fi
dc.description.version Peer reviewed en
dc.contributor.department Department of Built Environment
dc.contributor.department University of Bonn
dc.contributor.department Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
dc.subject.keyword carrying capacity
dc.subject.keyword food security
dc.subject.keyword food trade
dc.subject.keyword global change
dc.subject.keyword resource scarcity
dc.subject.keyword Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)
dc.subject.keyword Environmental Science(all)
dc.subject.keyword 1171 Geosciences
dc.subject.keyword 218 Environmental engineering
dc.identifier.urn URN:NBN:fi:aalto-201710157193
dc.identifier.doi 10.1002/2016EF000477
dc.type.version publishedVersion

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