The open source energy model base for the European union (OSEMBE)

Abstract

In this thesis, the Open Source Energy Model Base (OSEMBE) for the European Union was developed. Thus far the model covers seven countries around the Baltic sea, though preparatory work was done for adding the other countries of the union soon. OSEMBE, and hence this thesis, aims to provide an open-access, comprehensive and easy to understand long-term model for Europe. By doing so, it aims to lower the threshold to join and contribute to the discussion about the future of European energy supply. This shall widen the circle of researchers dealing with energy systems modelling and make the energy discussion more transparent. OSEMBE is built using the Open Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS). As such, OSEMBE calculates the lowest net present value for the modelled system and period by using linear optimization. The modelling period covers the years from 2015 till 2050. Existing trans-border transmission capacity between the included countries – Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland – is considered in the model. New trans-border transmission capacities, currently under construction or in the planning phase, are considered from the expected starting date of operation. The connections to countries not covered by the model are not modelled as of yet. Ten fuels are used by the technologies defined in the model, namely biomass, coal, geothermal, heavy fuel oil, hydro, natural gas, nuclear, wind and waste. Each fuel can be used by several technologies. In addition to technology parameters like investment cost, fuel cost, and fixed and variable operation and maintenance cost, an increasing emission penalty for carbon dioxide is defined, which represents the cost related to the emission of greenhouse gases (similar to the European emission trading system). Domestically produced fuels are assumed to be cheaper than imported ones, but domestic production is limited depending on the countries’ resources. The thesis is divided into five chapters. In the first chapter the motivation for the thesis is explained. The second chapter sets the objective of the work, before the creation of the model is described in chapter three. General results and the results of a sensitivity analysis of the influence of the reserve margin are shown and discussed in the fourth chapter. In the last chapter conclusions are drawn and a guideline is laid out on how the development of OSEMBE could be continued, e.g. through improvement of the transmission, implementation of heat, storage and traffic.