Estimation of country contributions to the climate change : viewpoints of radiative forcing and uncertainty of emissions

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dc.contributor Aalto-yliopisto fi
dc.contributor Aalto University en Monni, Suvi 2012-02-17T07:07:39Z 2012-02-17T07:07:39Z 2005-10-27
dc.identifier.isbn 951-38-6666-1
dc.identifier.issn 1455-0849
dc.description.abstract Global warming that occurs due to emissions from a country or a country group was studied from two different points of view. Firstly, warming effect caused by Finnish emissions from 1900 to 2100 was assessed using a model that describes removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere by pulse response functions, and calculates the radiative forcing caused by an increase in atmospheric concentration. Secondly, Finland's share of global emissions was assessed for the time period during which detailed greenhouse gas inventories were available, i.e. from 1990 to 2003, taking into account uncertainties in emission estimates. The uncertainty estimate was made using literature, measurement data and expert judgement on input parameter uncertainties. Stochastic simulation was used to combine the uncertainties. In addition, uncertainties in different emissions trading schemes were compared at EU level. Greenhouse gases covered by the study were those included in the Kyoto Protocol, i.e. carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6). Sectors covered were energy, industry, transportation, agriculture and waste. LULUCF sectors (land-use, land use change and forestry) were covered more superficially. Finnish greenhouse gas emissions in 2003 were 86 Tg CO2 eq (without LULUCF). According to the results, 95% confidence interval of this figure lies between 82 and 92 Tg CO2 eq. This represents a share of 0.2-0.3% of global emissions. In the same year, Finland's share of global population was 0.1% and share of global GDP 0.4%. The most important contributors to uncertainty were N2O emissions from agricultural soils, N2O from nitric acid production and CH4 from landfills. Inclusion of LULUCF categories in the inventory increased relative uncertainty of net emissions notably (emissions in 2003 were 68 Tg CO2 eq with a 95% confidence interval of 58 to 78 Tg CO2 eq). According to the radiative forcing calculations, forcing caused by Finland will increase from 3 mWm-2 in 1990 to 6-11 mWm-2 by 2100, depending on emission reduction strategies applied, and technological development. In 1990 Finland's share of global radiative forcing was estimated at 0.18% and by 2100 it will decrease to 0.13%, due to increase in global emissions. The results revealed that Finland's share of radiative forcing was smaller than the share of emissions. This was due to Finland's relatively short emission history. It was concluded that uncertainty in EU emissions trading scheme for CO2 (2005-2007) contains rather small uncertainties (±3% based on uncertainties in inventories), but the extension of emissions trading scheme to cover other sectors or gases is likely to increase the uncertainties (up to 21% in Kyoto emissions trading scheme). Both radiative forcing and uncertainty assessment models developed in the thesis can be used in decision making, e.g. for comparing different emission reduction strategies and for planning of future climate commitments. en
dc.format.extent 99, [76]
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
dc.language.iso en en
dc.publisher VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland en
dc.publisher VTT fi
dc.relation.ispartofseries VTT publications en
dc.relation.ispartofseries 577 en
dc.relation.haspart Monni, S., Korhonen, R. and Savolainen, I. 2003. Radiative forcing due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions from Finland: methods for estimating forcing of a country or an activity. Environmental Management, Vol. 31, No. 3, pp. 401-411.
dc.relation.haspart Monni, S., Syri, S. and Savolainen, I. 2004. Uncertainties in the Finnish greenhouse gas emission inventory. Environmental Science and Policy, Vol. 7, No. 2, pp. 87-98.
dc.relation.haspart Monni, S., Syri, S., Pipatti, R. and Savolainen, I. 2004. Comparison of uncertainty in different emission trading schemes. In: Proceedings of the International Workshop on Uncertainty in Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Verification, Compliance and Trading. September 24-25, 2004, Warsaw, Poland. Pp. 106-115. [Extended version of Workshop paper is to be published in Water, Air & Soil Pollution: Focus (WAFO)]. [article3.pdf] By permission.
dc.relation.haspart Monni, S., Perälä, P. and Regina, K. (In press.). Uncertainty in agricultural CH<sub>4</sub> and N<sub>2</sub>O emissions from Finland – possibilities to increase accuracy in emission estimates. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change.
dc.subject.other Environmental science en
dc.title Estimation of country contributions to the climate change : viewpoints of radiative forcing and uncertainty of emissions en
dc.type G5 Artikkeliväitöskirja fi
dc.description.version reviewed en
dc.contributor.department Department of Mechanical Engineering en
dc.contributor.department Konetekniikan osasto fi
dc.subject.keyword climate change en
dc.subject.keyword global warming en
dc.subject.keyword radiative forcing en
dc.subject.keyword emissions en
dc.subject.keyword greenhouse gases en
dc.subject.keyword estimation en
dc.subject.keyword modelling en
dc.subject.keyword emissions trading en
dc.subject.keyword emissions reduction en
dc.identifier.urn urn:nbn:fi:tkk-005496
dc.type.dcmitype text en
dc.type.ontasot Väitöskirja (artikkeli) fi
dc.type.ontasot Doctoral dissertation (article-based) en

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